Cathy DiGennaro, BA
Cathy is currently a Ph.D. student at MIT Sloan School of Management studying system dynamics. Her interests largely lie at the intersections between organizational management practices, healthcare choice and provision, and labor.
Prior to joining Sloan, Cathy received a Bachelor of Arts in Neuroscience from Wellesley College. In May 2019, she joined the ITA and worked as a research associate under Dr. Mohammad S. Jalali and Dr. Carrie C. Cunningham on simulation modeling and health outcomes research. Her projects included the development of an opioid systems model and efforts to model and improve the quality of care of patients with thyroid cancer.
Selected Publications
Stringfellow, Erin J; Lim, Tse Yang; DiGennaro, Catherine; Zhang, Ziyuan; Paramasivam, Pritika; Bearnot, Benjamin; Humphreys, Keith; Jalali, Mohammad S
Long-Term Effects of Increasing Buprenorphine Treatment Seeking, Duration, and Capacity on Opioid Overdose Fatalities: A Model-Based Analysis Journal Article
In: J Addict Med, vol. 17, iss. 4, pp. 439-446, 2023, ISSN: 1935-3227.
@article{pmid36799870,
title = {Long-Term Effects of Increasing Buprenorphine Treatment Seeking, Duration, and Capacity on Opioid Overdose Fatalities: A Model-Based Analysis},
author = {Erin J Stringfellow and Tse Yang Lim and Catherine DiGennaro and Ziyuan Zhang and Pritika Paramasivam and Benjamin Bearnot and Keith Humphreys and Mohammad S Jalali},
doi = {10.1097/ADM.0000000000001153},
issn = {1935-3227},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-08-01},
urldate = {2023-02-01},
journal = {J Addict Med},
volume = {17},
issue = {4},
pages = {439-446},
abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Because buprenorphine treatment of opioid use disorder reduces opioid overdose deaths (OODs), expanding access to care is an important policy and clinical care goal. Policymakers must choose within capacity limitations whether to expand the number of people with opioid use disorder who are treated or extend duration for existing patients. This inherent tradeoff could be made less acute with expanded buprenorphine treatment capacity.
METHODS: To inform such decisions, we used a validated simulation model to project the effects of increasing buprenorphine treatment-seeking, average episode duration, and capacity (patients per provider) on OODs in the United States from 2023 to 2033, varying the start time to assess the effects of implementation delays.
RESULTS: Results show that increasing treatment duration alone could cost lives in the short term by reducing capacity for new admissions yet save more lives in the long term than accomplished by only increasing treatment seeking. Increasing provider capacity had negligible effects. The most effective 2-policy combination was increasing capacity and duration simultaneously, which would reduce OODs up to 18.6% over a decade. By 2033, the greatest reduction in OODs (≥20%) was achieved when capacity was doubled and average duration reached 2 years, but only if the policy changes started in 2023. Delaying even a year diminishes the benefits. Treatment-seeking increases were equally beneficial whether they began in 2023 or 2025 but of only marginal benefit beyond what capacity and duration achieved.
CONCLUSIONS: If policymakers only target 2 policies to reduce OODs, they should be to increase capacity and duration, enacted quickly and aggressively.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
METHODS: To inform such decisions, we used a validated simulation model to project the effects of increasing buprenorphine treatment-seeking, average episode duration, and capacity (patients per provider) on OODs in the United States from 2023 to 2033, varying the start time to assess the effects of implementation delays.
RESULTS: Results show that increasing treatment duration alone could cost lives in the short term by reducing capacity for new admissions yet save more lives in the long term than accomplished by only increasing treatment seeking. Increasing provider capacity had negligible effects. The most effective 2-policy combination was increasing capacity and duration simultaneously, which would reduce OODs up to 18.6% over a decade. By 2033, the greatest reduction in OODs (≥20%) was achieved when capacity was doubled and average duration reached 2 years, but only if the policy changes started in 2023. Delaying even a year diminishes the benefits. Treatment-seeking increases were equally beneficial whether they began in 2023 or 2025 but of only marginal benefit beyond what capacity and duration achieved.
CONCLUSIONS: If policymakers only target 2 policies to reduce OODs, they should be to increase capacity and duration, enacted quickly and aggressively.
Claypool, Anneke L; DiGennaro, Catherine; Russell, W Alton; Yildirim, Melike F; Zhang, Alan F; Reid, Zuri; Stringfellow, Erin J; Bearnot, Benjamin; Schackman, Bruce R; Humphreys, Keith; Jalali, Mohammad S
Cost-effectiveness of Increasing Buprenorphine Treatment Initiation, Duration, and Capacity Among Individuals Who Use Opioids Journal Article
In: JAMA Health Forum, vol. 4, no. 5, pp. e231080, 2023, ISSN: 2689-0186.
@article{pmid37204803,
title = {Cost-effectiveness of Increasing Buprenorphine Treatment Initiation, Duration, and Capacity Among Individuals Who Use Opioids},
author = {Anneke L Claypool and Catherine DiGennaro and W Alton Russell and Melike F Yildirim and Alan F Zhang and Zuri Reid and Erin J Stringfellow and Benjamin Bearnot and Bruce R Schackman and Keith Humphreys and Mohammad S Jalali},
doi = {10.1001/jamahealthforum.2023.1080},
issn = {2689-0186},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-05-05},
urldate = {2023-05-01},
journal = {JAMA Health Forum},
volume = {4},
number = {5},
pages = {e231080},
abstract = {IMPORTANCE: Buprenorphine is an effective and cost-effective medication to treat opioid use disorder (OUD), but is not readily available to many people with OUD in the US. The current cost-effectiveness literature does not consider interventions that concurrently increase buprenorphine initiation, duration, and capacity.nnOBJECTIVE: To conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis and compare interventions associated with increased buprenorphine treatment initiation, duration, and capacity.nnDESIGN AND SETTING: This study modeled the effects of 5 interventions individually and in combination using SOURCE, a recent system dynamics model of prescription opioid and illicit opioid use, treatment, and remission, calibrated to US data from 1999 to 2020. The analysis was run during a 12-year time horizon from 2021 to 2032, with lifetime follow-up. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis on intervention effectiveness and costs was conducted. Analyses were performed from April 2021 through March 2023. Modeled participants included people with opioid misuse and OUD in the US.nnINTERVENTIONS: Interventions included emergency department buprenorphine initiation, contingency management, psychotherapy, telehealth, and expansion of hub-and-spoke narcotic treatment programs, individually and in combination.nnMAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Total national opioid overdose deaths, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and costs from the societal and health care perspective.nnRESULTS: Projections showed that contingency management expansion would avert 3530 opioid overdose deaths over 12 years, more than any other single-intervention strategy. Interventions that increased buprenorphine treatment duration initially were associated with an increased number of opioid overdose deaths in the absence of expanded treatment capacity. With an incremental cost- effectiveness ratio of $19 381 per QALY gained (2021 USD), the strategy that expanded contingency management, hub-and-spoke training, emergency department initiation, and telehealth was the preferred strategy for any willingness-to-pay threshold from $20 000 to $200 000/QALY gained, as it was associated with increased treatment duration and capacity simultaneously.nnCONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: This modeling analysis simulated the effects of implementing several intervention strategies across the buprenorphine cascade of care and found that strategies that were concurrently associated with increased buprenorphine treatment initiation, duration, and capacity were cost-effective.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Stringfellow, Erin J; Lim, Tse Yang; DiGennaro, Catherine; Hasgul, Zeynep; Jalali, Mohammad S
Enumerating contributions of fentanyls and other factors to the unprecedented 2020 rise in opioid overdose deaths: model-based analysis Journal Article
In: PNAS Nexus, vol. 2, no. 4, pp. pgad064, 2023, ISSN: 2752-6542.
@article{pmid37020497,
title = {Enumerating contributions of fentanyls and other factors to the unprecedented 2020 rise in opioid overdose deaths: model-based analysis},
author = {Erin J Stringfellow and Tse Yang Lim and Catherine DiGennaro and Zeynep Hasgul and Mohammad S Jalali},
doi = {10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad064},
issn = {2752-6542},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-04-01},
journal = {PNAS Nexus},
volume = {2},
number = {4},
pages = {pgad064},
abstract = {In 2020, the ongoing US opioid overdose crisis collided with the emerging COVID-19 pandemic. Opioid overdose deaths (OODs) rose an unprecedented 38%, due to a combination of COVID-19 disrupting services essential to people who use drugs, continued increases in fentanyls in the illicit drug supply, and other factors. How much did these factors contribute to increased OODs? We used a validated simulation model of the opioid overdose crisis, SOURCE, to estimate excess OODs in 2020 and the distribution of that excess attributable to various factors. Factors affecting OODs that could have been disrupted by COVID-19, and for which data were available, included opioid prescribing, naloxone distribution, and receipt of medications for opioid use disorder. We also accounted for fentanyls' presence in the heroin supply. We estimated a total of 18,276 potential excess OODs, including 1,792 lives saved due to increases in buprenorphine receipt and naloxone distribution and decreases in opioid prescribing. Critically, growth in fentanyls drove 43% (7,879) of the excess OODs. A further 8% is attributable to first-ever declines in methadone maintenance treatment and extended-released injectable naltrexone treatment, most likely due to COVID-19-related disruptions. In all, 49% of potential excess OODs remain unexplained, at least some of which are likely due to additional COVID-19-related disruptions. While the confluence of various COVID-19-related factors could have been responsible for more than half of excess OODs, fentanyls continued to play a singular role in excess OODs, highlighting the urgency of mitigating their effects on overdoses.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Collins, Reagan A; DiGennaro, Catherine; Beninato, Toni; Gartland, Rajshri M; Chaves, Natalia; Broekhuis, Jordan M; Reddy, Lekha; Lee, Jenna; Deimiller, Angelina; Alterio, Maeve M; Campbell, Michael J; Lee, Yeon Joo; Khilnani, Tyler K; Stewart, Latoya A; O'Brien, Mollie A; Alvarado, Miguel Valdivia Y; Zheng, Feibi; McAneny, David; Liou, Rachel; McManus, Catherine; Dream, Sophie Y; Wang, Tracy S; Yen, Tina W; Alhefdhi, Amal; Finnerty, Brendan M; Fahey, Thomas J; Graves, Claire E; Laird, Amanda M; Nehs, Matthew A; Drake, Frederick Thurston; Lee, James A; McHenry, Christopher R; James, Benjamin C; Pasieka, Janice L; Kuo, Jennifer H; Lubitz, Carrie Cunningham
Limited disease progression in endocrine surgery patients with treatment delays due to COVID-19 Journal Article
In: Surgery, vol. 173, no. 1, pp. 93–100, 2023, ISSN: 1532-7361.
@article{pmid36210185,
title = {Limited disease progression in endocrine surgery patients with treatment delays due to COVID-19},
author = {Reagan A Collins and Catherine DiGennaro and Toni Beninato and Rajshri M Gartland and Natalia Chaves and Jordan M Broekhuis and Lekha Reddy and Jenna Lee and Angelina Deimiller and Maeve M Alterio and Michael J Campbell and Yeon Joo Lee and Tyler K Khilnani and Latoya A Stewart and Mollie A O'Brien and Miguel Valdivia Y Alvarado and Feibi Zheng and David McAneny and Rachel Liou and Catherine McManus and Sophie Y Dream and Tracy S Wang and Tina W Yen and Amal Alhefdhi and Brendan M Finnerty and Thomas J Fahey and Claire E Graves and Amanda M Laird and Matthew A Nehs and Frederick Thurston Drake and James A Lee and Christopher R McHenry and Benjamin C James and Janice L Pasieka and Jennifer H Kuo and Carrie Cunningham Lubitz},
doi = {10.1016/j.surg.2022.06.043},
issn = {1532-7361},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-01-01},
journal = {Surgery},
volume = {173},
number = {1},
pages = {93--100},
abstract = {BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly impacted the delivery of care and timing of elective surgical procedures. Most endocrine-related operations were considered elective and safe to postpone, providing a unique opportunity to assess clinical outcomes under protracted treatment plans.
METHODS: American Association of Endocrine Surgeon members were surveyed for participation. A Research Electronic Data Capture survey was developed and distributed to 27 institutions to assess the impact of COVID-19-related delays. The information collected included patient demographics, primary diagnosis, resumption of care, and assessment of disease progression by the surgeon.
RESULTS: Twelve out of 27 institutions completed the survey (44.4%). Of 850 patients, 74.8% (636) were female; median age was 56 (interquartile range, 44-66) years. Forty percent (34) of patients had not been seen since their original surgical appointment was delayed; 86.2% (733) of patients had a delay in care with women more likely to have a delay (87.6% vs 82.2% of men, χ = 3.84, P = .05). Median duration of delay was 70 (interquartile range, 42-118) days. Among patients with a delay in care, primary disease site included thyroid (54.2%), parathyroid (37.2%), adrenal (6.5%), and pancreatic/gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors (1.3%). In addition, 4.0% (26) of patients experienced disease progression and 4.1% (24) had a change from the initial operative plan. The duration of delay was not associated with disease progression (P = .96) or a change in operative plan (P = .66).
CONCLUSION: Although some patients experienced disease progression during COVID-19 delays to endocrine disease-related care, most patients with follow-up did not. Our analysis indicated that temporary delay may be an acceptable course of action in extreme circumstances for most endocrine-related surgical disease.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
METHODS: American Association of Endocrine Surgeon members were surveyed for participation. A Research Electronic Data Capture survey was developed and distributed to 27 institutions to assess the impact of COVID-19-related delays. The information collected included patient demographics, primary diagnosis, resumption of care, and assessment of disease progression by the surgeon.
RESULTS: Twelve out of 27 institutions completed the survey (44.4%). Of 850 patients, 74.8% (636) were female; median age was 56 (interquartile range, 44-66) years. Forty percent (34) of patients had not been seen since their original surgical appointment was delayed; 86.2% (733) of patients had a delay in care with women more likely to have a delay (87.6% vs 82.2% of men, χ = 3.84, P = .05). Median duration of delay was 70 (interquartile range, 42-118) days. Among patients with a delay in care, primary disease site included thyroid (54.2%), parathyroid (37.2%), adrenal (6.5%), and pancreatic/gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors (1.3%). In addition, 4.0% (26) of patients experienced disease progression and 4.1% (24) had a change from the initial operative plan. The duration of delay was not associated with disease progression (P = .96) or a change in operative plan (P = .66).
CONCLUSION: Although some patients experienced disease progression during COVID-19 delays to endocrine disease-related care, most patients with follow-up did not. Our analysis indicated that temporary delay may be an acceptable course of action in extreme circumstances for most endocrine-related surgical disease.
Garcia, Gian-Gabriel P; Stringfellow, Erin J; DiGennaro, Catherine; Poellinger, Nicole; Wood, Jaden; Wakeman, Sarah; Jalali, Mohammad S
Opioid overdose decedent characteristics during COVID-19 Journal Article
In: Ann Med, vol. 54, no. 1, pp. 1081–1088, 2022, ISSN: 1365-2060.
@article{pmid35467475,
title = {Opioid overdose decedent characteristics during COVID-19},
author = {Gian-Gabriel P Garcia and Erin J Stringfellow and Catherine DiGennaro and Nicole Poellinger and Jaden Wood and Sarah Wakeman and Mohammad S Jalali},
doi = {10.1080/07853890.2022.2067350},
issn = {1365-2060},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-12-01},
journal = {Ann Med},
volume = {54},
number = {1},
pages = {1081--1088},
abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Alongside the emergence of COVID-19 in the United States, several reports highlighted increasing rates of opioid overdose from preliminary data. Yet, little is known about how state-level opioid overdose death trends and decedent characteristics have evolved using official death records.
METHODS: We requested vital statistics data from 2018-2020 from all 50 states and the District of Columbia, receiving data from 14 states. Accounting for COVID-19, we excluded states without data past March 2020, leaving 11 states for analysis. We defined state-specific analysis periods from March 13 until the latest reliable date in each state's data, then conducted retrospective year-over-year analyses comparing opioid-related overdose death rates, the presence of specific opioids and other psychoactive substances, and decedents' sex, race, and age from 2020 to 2019 and 2019 to 2018 within each state's analysis period. We assessed whether significant changes in 2020 vs. 2019 in opioid overdose deaths were new or continuing trends using joinpoint regression.
RESULTS: We found significant increases in opioid-related overdose death rates in Alaska (55.3%), Colorado (80.2%), Indiana (40.1%), Nevada (50.0%), North Carolina (30.5%), Rhode Island (29.6%), and Virginia (66.4%) - all continuing previous trends. Increases in synthetic opioid-involved overdose deaths were new in Alaska (136.5%), Indiana (27.6%), and Virginia (16.5%), whilst continuing in Colorado (44.4%), Connecticut (3.6%), Nevada (75.0%), and North Carolina (14.6%). We found new increases in male decedents in Indiana (12.0%), and continuing increases in Colorado (15.2%). We also found continuing increases in Black non-Hispanic decedents in Massachusetts (43.9%) and Virginia (33.7%).
CONCLUSION: This research analyzes vital statistics data from 11 states, highlighting new trends in opioid overdose deaths and decedent characteristics across 10 of these states. These findings can inform state-specific public health interventions and highlight the need for timely and comprehensive fatal opioid overdose data, especially amidst concurrent crises such as COVID-19. Key messages:Our results highlight shifts in opioid overdose trends during the COVID-19 pandemic that cannot otherwise be extracted from aggregated or provisional opioid overdose death data such as those published by the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.Fentanyl and other synthetic opioids continue to drive increases in fatal overdoses, making it difficult to separate these trends from any possible COVID-19-related factors.Black non-Hispanic people are making up an increasing proportion of opioid overdose deaths in some states.State-specific limitations and variations in data-reporting for vital statistics make it challenging to acquire and analyse up-to-date data on opioid-related overdose deaths. More timely and comprehensive data are needed to generate broader insights on the nature of the intersecting opioid and COVID-19 crises.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
METHODS: We requested vital statistics data from 2018-2020 from all 50 states and the District of Columbia, receiving data from 14 states. Accounting for COVID-19, we excluded states without data past March 2020, leaving 11 states for analysis. We defined state-specific analysis periods from March 13 until the latest reliable date in each state's data, then conducted retrospective year-over-year analyses comparing opioid-related overdose death rates, the presence of specific opioids and other psychoactive substances, and decedents' sex, race, and age from 2020 to 2019 and 2019 to 2018 within each state's analysis period. We assessed whether significant changes in 2020 vs. 2019 in opioid overdose deaths were new or continuing trends using joinpoint regression.
RESULTS: We found significant increases in opioid-related overdose death rates in Alaska (55.3%), Colorado (80.2%), Indiana (40.1%), Nevada (50.0%), North Carolina (30.5%), Rhode Island (29.6%), and Virginia (66.4%) - all continuing previous trends. Increases in synthetic opioid-involved overdose deaths were new in Alaska (136.5%), Indiana (27.6%), and Virginia (16.5%), whilst continuing in Colorado (44.4%), Connecticut (3.6%), Nevada (75.0%), and North Carolina (14.6%). We found new increases in male decedents in Indiana (12.0%), and continuing increases in Colorado (15.2%). We also found continuing increases in Black non-Hispanic decedents in Massachusetts (43.9%) and Virginia (33.7%).
CONCLUSION: This research analyzes vital statistics data from 11 states, highlighting new trends in opioid overdose deaths and decedent characteristics across 10 of these states. These findings can inform state-specific public health interventions and highlight the need for timely and comprehensive fatal opioid overdose data, especially amidst concurrent crises such as COVID-19. Key messages:Our results highlight shifts in opioid overdose trends during the COVID-19 pandemic that cannot otherwise be extracted from aggregated or provisional opioid overdose death data such as those published by the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.Fentanyl and other synthetic opioids continue to drive increases in fatal overdoses, making it difficult to separate these trends from any possible COVID-19-related factors.Black non-Hispanic people are making up an increasing proportion of opioid overdose deaths in some states.State-specific limitations and variations in data-reporting for vital statistics make it challenging to acquire and analyse up-to-date data on opioid-related overdose deaths. More timely and comprehensive data are needed to generate broader insights on the nature of the intersecting opioid and COVID-19 crises.
DiGennaro, Catherine; Vahdat, Vahab; Jalali, Mohammad; Toumi, Asmae; Watson, Tina; Gazelle, G Scott; Mercaldo, Nathaniel; Lubitz, Carrie C
In: Thyroid, vol. 32, iss. 10, pp. 1144-1157, 2022, ISSN: 1557-9077.
@article{pmid35999710,
title = {Assessing Bias and Limitations of Clinical Validation Studies of Molecular Diagnostic Tests for Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis},
author = {Catherine DiGennaro and Vahab Vahdat and Mohammad Jalali and Asmae Toumi and Tina Watson and G Scott Gazelle and Nathaniel Mercaldo and Carrie C Lubitz},
doi = {10.1089/thy.2022.0269},
issn = {1557-9077},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-10-01},
urldate = {2022-09-26},
journal = {Thyroid},
volume = {32},
issue = {10},
pages = {1144-1157},
abstract = {BACKGROUND: Molecular tests for thyroid nodules with indeterminate fine needle aspiration results are increasingly used in clinical practice; however, true diagnostic summaries of these tests are unknown. A systematic review and meta-analysis were completed to (1) evaluate the accuracy of commercially available molecular tests for malignancy in indeterminate thyroid nodules and (2) quantify biases and limitations in studies which validate those tests.
METHODS: PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science were systematically searched through July 2021. English language articles that reported original clinical validation attempts of molecular tests for indeterminate thyroid nodules were included if they reported counts of true negative, true positive, false negative, and false positive results. We performed screening and full text review, followed by assessment of eight common biases and limitations, extraction of diagnostic and histopathological information, and meta-analysis of clinical validity using a bivariate linear mixed-effects model.
RESULTS: 49 studies were included. Meta-analysis of Afirma GEC (n=38 studies) revealed a sensitivity of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.90-0.94), specificity of 0.26 (0.20-0.32), negative likelihood ratio (LR-) of 0.32 (0.23-0.44), positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of 1.24 (1.15-1.35), and AUC of 0.83 (0.74-0.89). Afirma GSC (n=10) had a sensitivity of 0.94 (0.89-0.96), specificity of 0.38 (0.27-0.50), LR- of 0.18 (0.10-0.30), LR+ of 1.52 (1.28-1.87), and AUC of 0.91 (0.62-0.92). ThyroSeq v1 and v2 (n=10) had a sensitivity of 0.86 (0.82-0.90), specificity of 0.74 (0.59-0.85), LR- of 0.19 (0.13-0.26), LR+ of 3.52 (2.08-5.92), and AUC of 0.86 (0.81-0.90). ThyroSeq v3 (n=6) had a sensitivity of 0.92 (0.86-0.95), specificity of 0.41 (0.18-0.69), LR- of 0.24 (0.09-0.62), LR+ of 1.67 (1.09-2.98), and AUC of 0.90 (0.63-0.92). 14% of studies conducted blinded histopathologic review of excised thyroid nodules, and 8% made the decision to go to surgery blind to molecular test results.
CONCLUSIONS: Meta-analyses reveal high diagnostic accuracy of molecular tests for thyroid nodule assessment of malignancy risk; however, these studies are subject to several limitations. Limitations and their potential clinical impacts must be addressed and, when feasible, adjusted for using valid statistical methodologies.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
METHODS: PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science were systematically searched through July 2021. English language articles that reported original clinical validation attempts of molecular tests for indeterminate thyroid nodules were included if they reported counts of true negative, true positive, false negative, and false positive results. We performed screening and full text review, followed by assessment of eight common biases and limitations, extraction of diagnostic and histopathological information, and meta-analysis of clinical validity using a bivariate linear mixed-effects model.
RESULTS: 49 studies were included. Meta-analysis of Afirma GEC (n=38 studies) revealed a sensitivity of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.90-0.94), specificity of 0.26 (0.20-0.32), negative likelihood ratio (LR-) of 0.32 (0.23-0.44), positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of 1.24 (1.15-1.35), and AUC of 0.83 (0.74-0.89). Afirma GSC (n=10) had a sensitivity of 0.94 (0.89-0.96), specificity of 0.38 (0.27-0.50), LR- of 0.18 (0.10-0.30), LR+ of 1.52 (1.28-1.87), and AUC of 0.91 (0.62-0.92). ThyroSeq v1 and v2 (n=10) had a sensitivity of 0.86 (0.82-0.90), specificity of 0.74 (0.59-0.85), LR- of 0.19 (0.13-0.26), LR+ of 3.52 (2.08-5.92), and AUC of 0.86 (0.81-0.90). ThyroSeq v3 (n=6) had a sensitivity of 0.92 (0.86-0.95), specificity of 0.41 (0.18-0.69), LR- of 0.24 (0.09-0.62), LR+ of 1.67 (1.09-2.98), and AUC of 0.90 (0.63-0.92). 14% of studies conducted blinded histopathologic review of excised thyroid nodules, and 8% made the decision to go to surgery blind to molecular test results.
CONCLUSIONS: Meta-analyses reveal high diagnostic accuracy of molecular tests for thyroid nodule assessment of malignancy risk; however, these studies are subject to several limitations. Limitations and their potential clinical impacts must be addressed and, when feasible, adjusted for using valid statistical methodologies.
Weiner, Scott G; Carroll, Aleta D; Brisbon, Nicholas M; Rodriguez, Claudia P; Covahey, Charles; Stringfellow, Erin J; DiGennaro, Catherine; Jalali, Mohammad S; Wakeman, Sarah E
Evaluating disparities in prescribing of naloxone after emergency department treatment of opioid overdose Journal Article
In: J Subst Abuse Treat, vol. 139, pp. 108785, 2022, ISSN: 1873-6483.
@article{pmid35537918,
title = {Evaluating disparities in prescribing of naloxone after emergency department treatment of opioid overdose},
author = {Scott G Weiner and Aleta D Carroll and Nicholas M Brisbon and Claudia P Rodriguez and Charles Covahey and Erin J Stringfellow and Catherine DiGennaro and Mohammad S Jalali and Sarah E Wakeman},
doi = {10.1016/j.jsat.2022.108785},
issn = {1873-6483},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-08-01},
urldate = {2022-04-01},
journal = {J Subst Abuse Treat},
volume = {139},
pages = {108785},
abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Patients who initially survive opioid-related overdose are at high risk for subsequent mortality. Our health system aimed to evaluate the presence of disparities in prescribing naloxone following opioid overdose.
METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients seen in our health system, which comprises two academic centers and eight community hospitals. Eligible patients had at least one visit to any of our hospital's emergency departments (EDs) with a diagnosis code indicating opioid-related overdose between May 1, 2018, and April 30, 2021. The primary outcome measure was prescription of nasal naloxone after at least one visit for opioid-related overdose during the study period.
RESULTS: The health system had 1348 unique patients who presented 1593 times to at least one of the EDs with opioid overdose. Of included patients, 580 (43.2%) received one or more prescriptions for naloxone. The majority (68.9%, n = 925) were male. For race/ethnicity, 74.5% (1000) were Non-Hispanic White, 8.0% (n = 108) were Non-Hispanic Black, and 13.0% (n = 175) were Hispanic/Latinx. Compared with the reference age group of 16-24 years, only those 65+ were less likely to receive naloxone (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.41, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.20-0.84). The study found no difference for gender (male aOR 1.23, 95% CI 0.97-1.57 compared to female). Hispanic/Latinx patients were more likely to receive a prescription when compared to Non-Hispanic White patients (aOR 1.72, 95% CI 1.22-2.44), while no difference occurred between Non-Hispanic Black compared to Non-Hispanic White patients (aOR 1.31, 95% CI 0.87-1.98).
CONCLUSIONS: Naloxone prescribing after overdose in our system was suboptimal, with fewer than half of patients with an overdose diagnosis code receiving this lifesaving and evidence-based intervention. Patients who were Hispanic/Latinx were more likely to receive naloxone than other race and ethnicity groups, and patients who were older were less likely to receive it. Health systems need ongoing equity-informed implementation of programs to expand access to naloxone to all patients at risk.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients seen in our health system, which comprises two academic centers and eight community hospitals. Eligible patients had at least one visit to any of our hospital's emergency departments (EDs) with a diagnosis code indicating opioid-related overdose between May 1, 2018, and April 30, 2021. The primary outcome measure was prescription of nasal naloxone after at least one visit for opioid-related overdose during the study period.
RESULTS: The health system had 1348 unique patients who presented 1593 times to at least one of the EDs with opioid overdose. Of included patients, 580 (43.2%) received one or more prescriptions for naloxone. The majority (68.9%, n = 925) were male. For race/ethnicity, 74.5% (1000) were Non-Hispanic White, 8.0% (n = 108) were Non-Hispanic Black, and 13.0% (n = 175) were Hispanic/Latinx. Compared with the reference age group of 16-24 years, only those 65+ were less likely to receive naloxone (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.41, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.20-0.84). The study found no difference for gender (male aOR 1.23, 95% CI 0.97-1.57 compared to female). Hispanic/Latinx patients were more likely to receive a prescription when compared to Non-Hispanic White patients (aOR 1.72, 95% CI 1.22-2.44), while no difference occurred between Non-Hispanic Black compared to Non-Hispanic White patients (aOR 1.31, 95% CI 0.87-1.98).
CONCLUSIONS: Naloxone prescribing after overdose in our system was suboptimal, with fewer than half of patients with an overdose diagnosis code receiving this lifesaving and evidence-based intervention. Patients who were Hispanic/Latinx were more likely to receive naloxone than other race and ethnicity groups, and patients who were older were less likely to receive it. Health systems need ongoing equity-informed implementation of programs to expand access to naloxone to all patients at risk.
Lim, Tse Yang; Stringfellow, Erin J; Stafford, Celia A; DiGennaro, Catherine; Homer, Jack B; Wakeland, Wayne; Eggers, Sara L; Kazemi, Reza; Glos, Lukas; Ewing, Emily G; Bannister, Calvin B; Humphreys, Keith; Throckmorton, Douglas C; Jalali, Mohammad S
Modeling the evolution of the US opioid crisis for national policy development Journal Article
In: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, vol. 119, no. 23, pp. e2115714119, 2022, ISSN: 1091-6490.
@article{pmid35639699,
title = {Modeling the evolution of the US opioid crisis for national policy development},
author = {Tse Yang Lim and Erin J Stringfellow and Celia A Stafford and Catherine DiGennaro and Jack B Homer and Wayne Wakeland and Sara L Eggers and Reza Kazemi and Lukas Glos and Emily G Ewing and Calvin B Bannister and Keith Humphreys and Douglas C Throckmorton and Mohammad S Jalali},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.2115714119},
issn = {1091-6490},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-06-01},
urldate = {2022-06-01},
journal = {Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A},
volume = {119},
number = {23},
pages = {e2115714119},
abstract = {Significance: The opioid crisis remains one of the greatest public health challenges in the United States. The crisis is complex, with long delays and feedbacks between policy actions and their effects, which creates a risk of unintended consequences and complicates policy decision-making. We present SOURCE (Simulation of Opioid Use, Response, Consequences, and Effects), an operationally detailed national-level model of the opioid crisis, intended to enhance understanding of the crisis and guide policy decisions. Drawing on multiple data sources, SOURCE replicates how risks of opioid misuse initiation and overdose have evolved over time in response to behavioral and other changes and suggests how those risks may evolve in the future, providing a basis for projecting and analyzing potential policy impacts and solutions.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Stringfellow, Erin J; Lim, Tse Yang; Humphreys, Keith; DiGennaro, Catherine; Stafford, Celia; Beaulieu, Elizabeth; Homer, Jack; Wakeland, Wayne; Bearnot, Benjamin; McHugh, R Kathryn; Kelly, John; Glos, Lukas; Eggers, Sara L; Kazemi, Reza; Jalali, Mohammad S
Reducing opioid use disorder and overdose deaths in the United States: A dynamic modeling analysis Journal Article
In: Sci Adv, vol. 8, no. 25, pp. eabm8147, 2022, ISSN: 2375-2548.
@article{pmid35749492,
title = {Reducing opioid use disorder and overdose deaths in the United States: A dynamic modeling analysis},
author = {Erin J Stringfellow and Tse Yang Lim and Keith Humphreys and Catherine DiGennaro and Celia Stafford and Elizabeth Beaulieu and Jack Homer and Wayne Wakeland and Benjamin Bearnot and R Kathryn McHugh and John Kelly and Lukas Glos and Sara L Eggers and Reza Kazemi and Mohammad S Jalali},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.abm8147},
issn = {2375-2548},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-06-01},
journal = {Sci Adv},
volume = {8},
number = {25},
pages = {eabm8147},
abstract = {Opioid overdose deaths remain a major public health crisis. We used a system dynamics simulation model of the U.S. opioid-using population age 12 and older to explore the impacts of 11 strategies on the prevalence of opioid use disorder (OUD) and fatal opioid overdoses from 2022 to 2032. These strategies spanned opioid misuse and OUD prevention, buprenorphine capacity, recovery support, and overdose harm reduction. By 2032, three strategies saved the most lives: (i) reducing the risk of opioid overdose involving fentanyl use, which may be achieved through fentanyl-focused harm reduction services; (ii) increasing naloxone distribution to people who use opioids; and (iii) recovery support for people in remission, which reduced deaths by reducing OUD. Increasing buprenorphine providers' capacity to treat more people decreased fatal overdose, but only in the short term. Our analysis provides insight into the kinds of multifaceted approaches needed to save lives.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Liao, Che-Yi; Garcia, Gian-Gabriel P; DiGennaro, Catherine; Jalali, Mohammad S
Racial Disparities in Opioid Overdose Deaths in Massachusetts Journal Article
In: JAMA Netw Open, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. e229081, 2022, ISSN: 2574-3805.
@article{pmid35482312,
title = {Racial Disparities in Opioid Overdose Deaths in Massachusetts},
author = {Che-Yi Liao and Gian-Gabriel P Garcia and Catherine DiGennaro and Mohammad S Jalali},
doi = {10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.9081},
issn = {2574-3805},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-04-01},
journal = {JAMA Netw Open},
volume = {5},
number = {4},
pages = {e229081},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}