Alec received a Bachelor of Arts in biology from Cornell University in 2018 and a Master of Public Health in epidemiology and biostatistics from Johns Hopkins in 2021. Before joining the ITA, Alec worked as a research assistant on various projects, covering topics including HIV, implementation science, and COVID-19. Additionally, he has experience working in the healthcare technology industry at a value-based care software company. He joined the ITA in 2021 and is currently working with Dr. Jag Chhatwal on projects related to hepatitis C elimination
Selected Publications
Aaron, Alec; Zhong, Huaiyang; Hiebert, Lindsey; Zhuo, Yueran; Adee, Madeline; Paraschiv, Angela; Stratulat, Silvia; Ward, John W; Chhatwal, Jagpreet
Hepatitis C Elimination in Moldova Is Feasible and Cost-Saving: A Modeling Study Journal Article
In: J Infect Dis, vol. 228, no. Supplement_3, pp. S189–S197, 2023, ISSN: 1537-6613.
@article{pmid37703345,
title = {Hepatitis C Elimination in Moldova Is Feasible and Cost-Saving: A Modeling Study},
author = {Alec Aaron and Huaiyang Zhong and Lindsey Hiebert and Yueran Zhuo and Madeline Adee and Angela Paraschiv and Silvia Stratulat and John W Ward and Jagpreet Chhatwal},
doi = {10.1093/infdis/jiad138},
issn = {1537-6613},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-09-13},
urldate = {2023-09-01},
journal = {J Infect Dis},
volume = {228},
number = {Supplement_3},
pages = {S189--S197},
abstract = {BACKGROUND: Moldova, an upper-middle-income country in Eastern Europe, is facing a high burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Our objective was to assist the National Agency of Public Health of Moldova in planning to achieve the World Health Organization's HCV elimination goals by 2030.nnMETHODS: This study adapted a previously developed microsimulation model to simulate the HCV epidemic in Moldova from 2004 to 2050. Model outcomes included temporal trends in HCV infection, prevalence, mortality, and total cost of care, including screening and treatment. We evaluated scenarios that could eliminate HCV by 2030.nnRESULTS: Multiple strategies could lead to HCV elimination in Moldova by 2030. A realistic scenario of a 20% annual screening and 80% treatment rate would require 2.75 million individuals to be screened and 65 000 treated by 2030. Compared to 2015, this program will reduce HCV incidence by 98% and HCV-related deaths by 72% in 2030. Between 2022 and 2030, this strategy would cost $17.5 million for HCV screening and treatment. However, by 2050, the health system would save \>$85 million compared to no investment in elimination efforts.nnCONCLUSIONS: HCV elimination in Moldova is feasible and can be cost saving, but requires resources to scale HCV screening and treatment.},
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pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
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BACKGROUND: Moldova, an upper-middle-income country in Eastern Europe, is facing a high burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Our objective was to assist the National Agency of Public Health of Moldova in planning to achieve the World Health Organization's HCV elimination goals by 2030.nnMETHODS: This study adapted a previously developed microsimulation model to simulate the HCV epidemic in Moldova from 2004 to 2050. Model outcomes included temporal trends in HCV infection, prevalence, mortality, and total cost of care, including screening and treatment. We evaluated scenarios that could eliminate HCV by 2030.nnRESULTS: Multiple strategies could lead to HCV elimination in Moldova by 2030. A realistic scenario of a 20% annual screening and 80% treatment rate would require 2.75 million individuals to be screened and 65 000 treated by 2030. Compared to 2015, this program will reduce HCV incidence by 98% and HCV-related deaths by 72% in 2030. Between 2022 and 2030, this strategy would cost $17.5 million for HCV screening and treatment. However, by 2050, the health system would save >$85 million compared to no investment in elimination efforts.nnCONCLUSIONS: HCV elimination in Moldova is feasible and can be cost saving, but requires resources to scale HCV screening and treatment.
Linas, Benjamin P; Xiao, Jade; Dalgic, Ozden O; Mueller, Peter P; Adee, Madeline; Aaron, Alec; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet
Projecting COVID-19 Mortality as States Relax Nonpharmacologic Interventions Journal Article
In: JAMA Health Forum, vol. 3, no. 4, pp. e220760, 2022, ISSN: 2689-0186.
@article{pmid35977324,
title = {Projecting COVID-19 Mortality as States Relax Nonpharmacologic Interventions},
author = {Benjamin P Linas and Jade Xiao and Ozden O Dalgic and Peter P Mueller and Madeline Adee and Alec Aaron and Turgay Ayer and Jagpreet Chhatwal},
doi = {10.1001/jamahealthforum.2022.0760},
issn = {2689-0186},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-04-01},
journal = {JAMA Health Forum},
volume = {3},
number = {4},
pages = {e220760},
abstract = {Importance: A key question for policy makers and the public is what to expect from the COVID-19 pandemic going forward as states lift nonpharmacologic interventions (NPIs), such as indoor mask mandates, to prevent COVID-19 transmission.
Objective: To project COVID-19 deaths between March 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022, in each of the 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico assuming different dates of lifting of mask mandates and NPIs.
Design Setting and Participants: This simulation modeling study used the COVID-19 Policy Simulator compartmental model to project COVID-19 deaths from March 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022, using simulated populations in the 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. Projected current epidemiologic trends for each state until December 31, 2022, assuming the current pace of vaccination is maintained into the future and modeling different dates of lifting NPIs.
Exposures: Date of lifting statewide NPI mandates as March 1, April 1, May 1, June 1, or July 1, 2022.
Main Outcomes and Measures: Projected COVID-19 incident deaths from March to December 2022.
Results: With the high transmissibility of current circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants, the simulated lifting of NPIs in March 2022 was associated with resurgences of COVID-19 deaths in nearly every state. In comparison, delaying by even 1 month to lift NPIs in April 2022 was estimated to mitigate the amplitude of the surge. For most states, however, no amount of delay was estimated to be sufficient to prevent a surge in deaths completely. The primary factor associated with recurrent epidemics in the simulation was the assumed high effective reproduction number of unmitigated viral transmission. With a lower level of transmissibility similar to those of the ancestral strains, the model estimated that most states could remove NPIs in March 2022 and likely not see recurrent surges.
Conclusions and Relevance: This simulation study estimated that the SARS-CoV-2 virus would likely continue to take a major toll in the US, even as cases continued to decrease. Because of the high transmissibility of the recent Delta and Omicron variants, premature lifting of NPIs could pose a substantial threat of rebounding surges in morbidity and mortality. At the same time, continued delay in lifting NPIs may not prevent future surges.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Importance: A key question for policy makers and the public is what to expect from the COVID-19 pandemic going forward as states lift nonpharmacologic interventions (NPIs), such as indoor mask mandates, to prevent COVID-19 transmission.
Objective: To project COVID-19 deaths between March 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022, in each of the 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico assuming different dates of lifting of mask mandates and NPIs.
Design Setting and Participants: This simulation modeling study used the COVID-19 Policy Simulator compartmental model to project COVID-19 deaths from March 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022, using simulated populations in the 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. Projected current epidemiologic trends for each state until December 31, 2022, assuming the current pace of vaccination is maintained into the future and modeling different dates of lifting NPIs.
Exposures: Date of lifting statewide NPI mandates as March 1, April 1, May 1, June 1, or July 1, 2022.
Main Outcomes and Measures: Projected COVID-19 incident deaths from March to December 2022.
Results: With the high transmissibility of current circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants, the simulated lifting of NPIs in March 2022 was associated with resurgences of COVID-19 deaths in nearly every state. In comparison, delaying by even 1 month to lift NPIs in April 2022 was estimated to mitigate the amplitude of the surge. For most states, however, no amount of delay was estimated to be sufficient to prevent a surge in deaths completely. The primary factor associated with recurrent epidemics in the simulation was the assumed high effective reproduction number of unmitigated viral transmission. With a lower level of transmissibility similar to those of the ancestral strains, the model estimated that most states could remove NPIs in March 2022 and likely not see recurrent surges.
Conclusions and Relevance: This simulation study estimated that the SARS-CoV-2 virus would likely continue to take a major toll in the US, even as cases continued to decrease. Because of the high transmissibility of the recent Delta and Omicron variants, premature lifting of NPIs could pose a substantial threat of rebounding surges in morbidity and mortality. At the same time, continued delay in lifting NPIs may not prevent future surges.
Objective: To project COVID-19 deaths between March 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022, in each of the 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico assuming different dates of lifting of mask mandates and NPIs.
Design Setting and Participants: This simulation modeling study used the COVID-19 Policy Simulator compartmental model to project COVID-19 deaths from March 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022, using simulated populations in the 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. Projected current epidemiologic trends for each state until December 31, 2022, assuming the current pace of vaccination is maintained into the future and modeling different dates of lifting NPIs.
Exposures: Date of lifting statewide NPI mandates as March 1, April 1, May 1, June 1, or July 1, 2022.
Main Outcomes and Measures: Projected COVID-19 incident deaths from March to December 2022.
Results: With the high transmissibility of current circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants, the simulated lifting of NPIs in March 2022 was associated with resurgences of COVID-19 deaths in nearly every state. In comparison, delaying by even 1 month to lift NPIs in April 2022 was estimated to mitigate the amplitude of the surge. For most states, however, no amount of delay was estimated to be sufficient to prevent a surge in deaths completely. The primary factor associated with recurrent epidemics in the simulation was the assumed high effective reproduction number of unmitigated viral transmission. With a lower level of transmissibility similar to those of the ancestral strains, the model estimated that most states could remove NPIs in March 2022 and likely not see recurrent surges.
Conclusions and Relevance: This simulation study estimated that the SARS-CoV-2 virus would likely continue to take a major toll in the US, even as cases continued to decrease. Because of the high transmissibility of the recent Delta and Omicron variants, premature lifting of NPIs could pose a substantial threat of rebounding surges in morbidity and mortality. At the same time, continued delay in lifting NPIs may not prevent future surges.