Publications

@article{Decouttere2021,

title = {Insights into vaccine hesitancy from systems thinking, Rwanda.},

author = {Catherine Decouttere and Stany Banzimana and Pr{a}l Davidsen and Carla Van Riet and Corinne Vandermeulen and Elizabeth Mason and Mohammad S. Jalali and Nico Vandaele},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34737471/},

doi = {10.2471/BLT.20.285258},

issn = {1564-0604},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-11-01},

journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization},

volume = {99},

pages = {783--794D},

abstract = {To investigate vaccine hesitancy leading to underimmunization and a measles outbreak in Rwanda and to develop a conceptual, community-level model of behavioural factors. Local immunization systems in two Rwandan communities (one recently experienced a measles outbreak) were explored using systems thinking, human-centred design and behavioural frameworks. Data were collected between 2018 and 2020 from: discussions with 11 vaccination service providers (i.e. hospital and health centre staff); interviews with 161 children's caregivers at health centres; and nine validation interviews with health centre staff. Factors influencing vaccine hesitancy were categorized using the 3Cs framework: confidence, complacency and convenience. A conceptual model of vaccine hesitancy mechanisms with feedback loops was developed. A comparison of service providers' and caregivers' perspectives in both rural and peri-urban settings showed that similar factors strengthened vaccine uptake: (i) high trust in vaccines and service providers based on personal relationships with health centre staff; (ii) the connecting role of community health workers; and (iii) a strong sense of community. Factors identified as increasing vaccine hesitancy (e.g. service accessibility and inadequate follow-up) differed between service providers and caregivers and between settings. The conceptual model could be used to explain drivers of the recent measles outbreak and to guide interventions designed to increase vaccine uptake. The application of behavioural frameworks and systems thinking revealed vaccine hesitancy mechanisms in Rwandan communities that demonstrate the interrelationship between immunization services and caregivers' vaccination behaviour. Confidence-building social structures and context-dependent challenges that affect vaccine uptake were also identified.},

keywords = {},

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@article{Adee2021a,

title = {Assessing cost-effectiveness of hepatitis C testing pathways in Georgia using the Hep C Testing Calculator.},

author = {Madeline Adee and Yueran Zhuo and Huaiyang Zhong and Tiannan Zhan and Rakesh Aggarwal and Sonjelle Shilton and Jagpreet Chhatwal},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34725356/},

doi = {10.1038/s41598-021-00362-y},

issn = {2045-2322},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-11-01},

journal = {Scientific reports},

volume = {11},

pages = {21382},

abstract = {The cost of testing can be a substantial contributor to hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination program costs in many low- and middle-income countries such as Georgia, resulting in the need for innovative and cost-effective strategies for testing. Our objective was to investigate the most cost-effective testing pathways for scaling-up HCV testing in Georgia. We developed a Markov-based model with a lifetime horizon that simulates the natural history of HCV, and the cost of detection and treatment of HCV. We then created an interactive online tool that uses results from the Markov-based model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different HCV testing pathways. We compared the current standard-of-care (SoC) testing pathway and four innovative testing pathways for Georgia. The SoC testing was cost-saving compared to no testing, but all four new HCV testing pathways further increased QALYs and decreased costs. The pathway with the highest patient follow-up, due to on-site testing, resulted in the highest discounted QALYs (123 QALY more than the SoC) and lowest costs ($127,052 less than the SoC) per 10,000 persons screened. The current testing algorithm in Georgia can be replaced with a new pathway that is more effective while being cost-saving.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {epublish},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Harvey2021a,

title = {Regulatory Issues and Challenges to Artificial Intelligence Adoption.},

author = {Harlan Benjamin Harvey and Vrushab Gowda},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34689875/},

doi = {10.1016/j.rcl.2021.07.007},

issn = {1557-8275},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-11-01},

journal = {Radiologic clinics of North America},

volume = {59},

pages = {1075--1083},

abstract = {Artificial intelligence technology promises to redefine the practice of radiology. However, it exists in a nascent phase and remains largely untested in the clinical space. This nature is both a cause and consequence of the uncertain legal-regulatory environment it enters. This discussion aims to shed light on these challenges, tracing the various pathways toward approval by the US Food and Drug Administration, the future of government oversight, privacy issues, ethical dilemmas, and practical considerations related to implementation in radiologist practice.},

keywords = {},

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@article{Bicher2021,

title = {Evaluation of Contact-Tracing Policies against the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Austria: An Agent-Based Simulation.},

author = {Martin Bicher and Claire Rippinger and Christoph Urach and Dominik Brunmeir and Uwe Siebert and Niki Popper},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34027734/},

doi = {10.1177/0272989X211013306},

issn = {1552-681X},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-11-01},

journal = {Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making},

volume = {41},

number = {8},

pages = {1017-1032},

abstract = {Many countries have already gone through several infection waves and mostly managed to successfully stop the exponential spread of SARS-CoV-2 through bundles of restrictive measures. Still, the danger of further waves of infections is omnipresent, and it is apparent that every containment policy must be carefully evaluated and possibly replaced by a different, less restrictive policy before it can be lifted. Tracing of contacts and consequential breaking of infection chains is a promising strategy to help contain the disease, although its precise impact on the epidemic is unknown. In this work, we aim to quantify the impact of tracing on the containment of the disease and investigate the dynamic effects involved. We developed an agent-based model that validly depicts the spread of the disease and allows for exploratory analysis of containment policies. We applied this model to quantify the impact of different approaches of contact tracing in Austria to derive general conclusions on contract tracing. The study displays that strict tracing complements other intervention strategies. For the containment of the disease, the number of secondary infections must be reduced by about 75%. Implementing the proposed tracing strategy supplements measures worth about 5%. Evaluation of the number of preventively quarantined persons shows that household quarantine is the most effective in terms of avoided cases per quarantined person. The results are limited by the validity of the modeling assumptions, model parameter estimates, and the quality of the parametrization data. The study shows that tracing is indeed an efficient measure to keep case numbers low but comes at a high price if the disease is not well contained. Therefore, contact tracing must be executed strictly, and adherence within the population must be held up to prevent uncontrolled outbreaks of the disease.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

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@article{Grossman2021,

title = {Organoid Sensitivity Correlates with Therapeutic Response in Patients with Pancreatic Cancer.},

author = {Joseph E. Grossman and Lakshmi Muthuswamy and Ling Huang and Dipikaa Akshinthala and Sofia Perea and Raul S. Gonzalez and Leo L. Tsai and Jonah Cohen and Bruno Bockorny and Andrea J. Bullock and Benjamin Schlechter and Mary Linton B. Peters and Catherine Conahan and Supraja Narasimhan and Christine Lim and Roger B. Davis and Robert Besaw and Mandeep S. Sawhney and Douglas Pleskow and Tyler M. Berzin and Martin Smith and Tara S. Kent and Mark Callery and Senthil K. Muthuswamy and Manuel Hidalgo},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34789479/},

doi = {10.1158/1078-0432.CCR-20-4116},

issn = {1557-3265},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-11-01},

journal = {Clinical cancer research : an official journal of the American Association for Cancer Research},

abstract = {Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) remains a significant health issue. For most patients there are no options for targeted therapy and existing treatments are limited by toxicity. The HOPE trial (Harnessing Organoids for PErsonalized Therapy) was a pilot feasibility trial aiming to prospectively generate patient derived organoids (PDOs) from patients with PDAC and test their drug sensitivity and correlation with clinical outcomes. PDOs were established from a heterogeneous population of patients with PDAC including both basal and classical PDAC subtypes. A method for classifying PDOs as sensitive or resistant to chemotherapy regimens was developed to predict the clinical outcome of study subjects. Drug sensitivity testing on PDOs correlated with clinical responses to treatment in individual patients. These data support the investigation of PDOs to guide treatment in prospective interventional trials in PDAC.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {aheadofprint},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Santoro2021a,

title = {K Awards: The Journey of a Thousand Steps.},

author = {Stephanie L. Santoro and Mary Linton B. Peters},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34781710/},

doi = {10.7326/M21-2692},

issn = {1539-3704},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-11-01},

journal = {Annals of internal medicine},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {aheadofprint},

tppubtype = {article}

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@article{Toumazis2021,

title = {Cost-effectiveness Evaluation of the 2021 US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation for Lung Cancer Screening.},

author = {Iakovos Toumazis and Koen Nijs and Pianpian Cao and Mehrad Bastani and Vidit Munshi and Kevin Ten Haaf and Jihyoun Jeon and G. Scott Gazelle and Eric J. Feuer and Harry J. Koning and Rafael Meza and Chung Yin Kong and Summer S. Han and Sylvia K. Plevritis},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34673885/},

doi = {10.1001/jamaoncol.2021.4942},

issn = {2374-2445},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-10-01},

journal = {JAMA oncology},

abstract = {The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) issued its 2021 recommendation on lung cancer screening, which lowered the starting age for screening from 55 to 50 years and the minimum cumulative smoking exposure from 30 to 20 pack-years relative to its 2013 recommendation. Although costs are expected to increase because of the expanded screening eligibility criteria, it is unknown whether the new guidelines for lung cancer screening are cost-effective. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the 2021 USPSTF recommendation for lung cancer screening compared with the 2013 recommendation and to explore the cost-effectiveness of 6 alternative screening strategies that maintained a minimum cumulative smoking exposure of 20 pack-years and an ending age for screening of 80 years but varied the starting ages for screening (50 or 55 years) and the number of years since smoking cessation (≤15, ≤20, or ≤25). A comparative cost-effectiveness analysis using 4 independently developed microsimulation models that shared common inputs to assess the population-level health benefits and costs of the 2021 recommended screening strategy and 6 alternative screening strategies compared with the 2013 recommended screening strategy. The models simulated a 1960 US birth cohort. Simulated individuals entered the study at age 45 years and were followed up until death or age 90 years, corresponding to a study period from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2050. Low-dose computed tomography in lung cancer screening programs with a minimum cumulative smoking exposure of 20 pack-years. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of the 2021 vs 2013 USPSTF lung cancer screening recommendations as well as 6 alternative screening strategies vs the 2013 USPSTF screening strategy. Strategies with a mean ICER lower than $100 000 per QALY were deemed cost-effective. The 2021 USPSTF recommendation was estimated to be cost-effective compared with the 2013 recommendation, with a mean ICER of $72 564 (range across 4 models, $59 493-$85 837) per QALY gained. The 2021 recommendation was not cost-effective compared with 6 alternative strategies that used the 20 pack-year criterion. Strategies associated with the most cost-effectiveness included those that expanded screening eligibility to include a greater number of former smokers who had not smoked for a longer duration (ie, ≤20 years and ≤25 years since smoking cessation vs ≤15 years since smoking cessation). In particular, the strategy that screened former smokers who quit within the past 25 years and began screening at age 55 years was associated with screening coverage closest to that of the 2021 USPSTF recommendation yet yielded greater cost-effectiveness, with a mean ICER of $66 533 (range across 4 models, $55 693-$80 539). This economic evaluation found that the 2021 USPSTF recommendation for lung cancer screening was cost-effective; however, alternative screening strategies that maintained a minimum cumulative smoking exposure of 20 pack-years but included individuals who quit smoking within the past 25 years may be more cost-effective and warrant further evaluation.},

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@article{Kuehne2021,

title = {Estimating Treatment-Switching Bias in a Randomized Clinical Trial of Ovarian Cancer Treatment: Combining Causal Inference with Decision-Analytic Modeling.},

author = {Felicitas Kuehne and Ursula Rochau and Noman Paracha and Jennifer M. Yeh and Eduardo Sabate and Uwe Siebert},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34666553/},

doi = {10.1177/0272989X211026288},

issn = {1552-681X},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-10-01},

journal = {Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making},

pages = {272989X211026288},

abstract = {Bevacizumab is efficacious in delaying ovarian cancer progression and controlling ascites. The ICON7 trial showed a significant benefit in overall survival for bevacizumab, whereas the GOG-218 trial did not. GOG-218 allowed control group patients to switch to bevacizumab upon progression, which may have biased the results. Lack of data on switching behavior prevented the application of g-methods to adjust for switching. The objective of this study was to apply decision-analytic modeling to estimate the impact of switching bias on causal treatment-effect estimates. We developed a causal decision-analytic Markov model (CDAMM) to emulate the GOG-218 trial and estimate overall survival. CDAMM input parameters were based on data from randomized clinical trials and the published literature. Overall switching proportion was based on GOG-218 trial information, whereas the proportion switching with and without ascites was estimated using calibration. We estimated the counterfactual treatment effect that would have been observed had no switching occurred by denying switching in the CDAMM. The survival curves generated by the CDAMM matched well with the ones reported in the GOG-218 trial. The survival curve correcting for switching showed an estimated bias such that 79% of the true treatment effect could not be observed in the GOG-218 trial. Results were most sensitive to changes in the proportion progressing with severe ascites and mortality. We used a simplified model structure and based model parameters on published data and assumptions. Robustness of the CDAMM was tested and model assumptions transparently reported. Medical-decision science methods may be merged with empirical methods of causal inference to integrate data from other sources where empirical data are not sufficient. We recommend collecting sufficient information on switching behavior when switching cannot be avoided.},

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pubstate = {aheadofprint},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Laszkowska2021c,

title = {Prevalence of Extensive and Limited Gastric Intestinal Metaplasia and Progression to Dysplasia and Gastric Cancer.},

author = {Monika Laszkowska and Han Truong and Adam S. Faye and Judith Kim and Sarah Xinhui Tan and Francesca Lim and Julian A. Abrams and Chin Hur},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34657192/},

doi = {10.1007/s10620-021-07276-9},

issn = {1573-2568},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-10-01},

journal = {Digestive diseases and sciences},

abstract = {Guidelines cite extensive gastric intestinal metaplasia (GIM) as a bigger risk factor for gastric cancer (GC) than limited GIM and an indication for endoscopic surveillance. Data on progression of extensive GIM to GC in the USA are limited. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence and progression rates of extensive GIM in a US cohort. This retrospective study assessed the prevalence of extensive GIM between 1/1/1990 and 8/1/2019 at a large academic medical center. Multivariable regression was used to identify predictors of extensive GIM. Incidence of GC on follow-up was calculated as number of new diagnoses divided by person-years of follow-up. Presence of GIM on subsequent follow-up endoscopy was assessed. Of 1256 individuals with GIM, 352 (28%) had extensive GIM and 904 (72%) had limited GIM. On multivariable analysis, older age (OR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00-1.02) and Hispanic ethnicity (OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.11-2.16) were predictive of extensive GIM. The annual incidence of GC for GIM overall was 0.09%. There was no difference in progression to GC between extensive or limited GIM (IRR 0, 95% CI 0-2.6), or to advanced lesions overall (IRR 0.37, 95% CI 0.04-1.62). 70% of individuals had persistent GIM on follow-up biopsy, and 22% with limited GIM had extensive GIM on follow-up biopsy. 28% of individuals with GIM have the extensive subtype, and are more likely to be older and of Hispanic ethnicity. There was no difference in progression to GC between extensive and limited GIM. Further research is needed to better assess risk of GIM in the US context.},

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pubstate = {aheadofprint},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Russell2021,

title = {Cost-effectiveness and budget impact of whole blood pathogen reduction in Ghana.},

author = {W. Alton Russell and Shirley Owusu-Ofori and Alex Owusu-Ofori and Eileen Micah and Betty Norman and Brian Custer},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34651313/},

doi = {10.1111/trf.16704},

issn = {1537-2995},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-10-01},

urldate = {2021-10-01},

journal = {Transfusion},

volume = {61},

issue = {12},

pages = {3402-3412},

abstract = {Despite the promise of pathogen reduction for reducing transfusion-associated adverse events in sub-Saharan Africa, no health-economic assessment is publicly available. We developed a mathematical risk reduction model to estimate the impact of nationwide whole blood pathogen reduction in Ghana on the incidence of six infectious and one non-infectious transfusion-associated adverse events. We estimated the lifetime direct healthcare costs and disability-adjusted life years lost for each adverse event. For HIV, HCV, and HBV, we simulated disease progression using Markov models, accounting for the likelihood and timing of clinical detection and treatment. We performed probabilistic and univariate sensitivity analysis. Adding whole blood pathogen reduction to Ghana's blood safety portfolio would avert an estimated 19,898 (11,948-27,353) adverse events and 38,491 (16,444-67,118) disability-adjusted life years annually, primarily by averting sepsis (49%) and malaria (31%) infections. One year of pathogen reduction would cost an estimated $8,037,191 ($6,381,946-$9,880,760) and eliminate $8,656,389 ($4,462,614-$13,469,448) in direct healthcare spending on transfusion-associated adverse events. We estimate a 58% probability that the addition of pathogen reduction would reduce overall direct healthcare spending. Findings were most sensitive to uncertainty in the probability that a bacterially contaminated blood donation causes sepsis. Whole blood pathogen reduction would substantially reduce the burden of known transfusion-associated adverse events in Ghana and may reduce overall healthcare spending. Additional benefits not captured by this analysis may include averting secondary transmission of infectious diseases, reducing non-medical costs, and averting new or re-emerging transfusion-transmitted infections.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

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@article{Zhou2021,

title = {Non-medullary Thyroid Cancer Susceptibility Genes: Evidence and Disease Spectrum.},

author = {Jingan Zhou and Preeti Singh and Kanhua Yin and Jin Wang and Yujia Bao and Menghua Wu and Kush Pathak and Sophia K McKinley and Danielle Braun and Carrie C. Lubitz and Kevin S Hughes},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33660127/},

doi = {10.1245/s10434-021-09745-x},

issn = {1534-4681},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-10-01},

journal = {Annals of surgical oncology},

volume = {28},

number = {11},

pages = {6590-6600},

abstract = {The prevalence of non-medullary thyroid cancer (NMTC) is increasing worldwide. Although most NMTCs grow slowly, conventional therapies are less effective in advanced tumors. Approximately 5-15% of NMTCs have a significant germline genetic component. Awareness of the NMTC susceptibility genes may lead to earlier diagnosis and better cancer prevention. The aim of this study was to provide the current panorama of susceptibility genes associated with NMTC and the spectrum of diseases associated with these genes. Twenty-five candidate genes were identified by searching for relevant studies in PubMed. Each candidate gene was carefully checked using six authoritative genetic resources: ClinGen, National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines, Online Mendelian Inheritance in Man, Genetics Home Reference, GeneCards, and Gene-NCBI, and a validated natural language processing (NLP)-based literature review protocol was used to further assess gene-disease associations where there was ambiguity. Among 25 candidate genes, 10 (APC, DICER1, FOXE1, HABP2, NKX2-1, PRKAR1A, PTEN, SDHB, SDHD, and SRGAP1) were verified among the six genetic resources. Two additional genes, CHEK2 and SEC23B, were verified using the NLP protocol. Seventy-nine diseases were found to be associated with these 12 NMTC susceptibility genes. The following diseases were associated with more than one NMTC susceptibility gene: colorectal cancer, breast cancer, gastric cancer, kidney cancer, gastrointestinal stromal tumor, paraganglioma, pheochromocytoma, and benign skin conditions. Twelve genes predisposing to NMTC and their associated disease spectra were identified and verified. Clinicians should be aware that patients with certain pathogenic variants may require more aggressive surveillance beyond their thyroid cancer risk.},

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@article{Sprague2021,

title = {Prioritizing breast imaging services during the COVID pandemic: A survey of breast imaging facilities within the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium.},

author = {Brian L Sprague and Ellen S O'Meara and Christoph I Lee and Janie Lee and Louise M Henderson and Diana S M Buist and Nila Alsheik and Teresita Macarol and Hannah Perry and Anna N A Tosteson and Tracy Onega and Karla Kerlikowske and Diana L Miglioretti},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34217424/},

doi = {10.1016/j.ypmed.2021.106540},

issn = {1096-0260},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-10-01},

journal = {Preventive medicine},

volume = {151},

pages = {106540},

abstract = {The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted breast cancer screening and diagnostic imaging in the United States. We sought to evaluate how medical facilities prioritized breast imaging services during periods of reduced capacity or upon re-opening after closures. In fall 2020, we surveyed 77 breast imaging facilities within the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium in the United States. The survey ascertained the pandemic's impact on clinical practices during March-September 2020. Nearly all facilities (97%) reported closing or operating at reduced capacity at some point during this period. All facilities were open by August 2020, though 14% were still operating at reduced capacity in September 2020. During periods of re-opening or reduced capacity, 93% of facilities reported prioritizing diagnostic breast imaging over breast cancer screening. For diagnostic imaging, facilities prioritized based on rescheduling canceled appointments (89%), specific indication for diagnostic imaging (89%), patient demand (84%), individual characteristics and risk factors (77%), and time since last imaging examination (72%). For screening mammography, facilities prioritized based on rescheduled cancelations (96%), patient demand (83%), individual characteristics and risk factors (73%), and time since last mammogram (71%). For biopsy services, more than 90% of facilities reported prioritization based on rescheduling of canceled exams, patient demand, patient characteristics and risk factors and level of suspicion on imaging. The observed patterns from this large and geographically diverse sample of facilities in the United States indicate that multiple factors were commonly used to prioritize breast imaging services during periods of reduced capacity.},

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@article{Harb2021,

title = {Acute Vision Loss From IgG4-Related and Bacterial Rhinosinusitis After COVID-19.},

author = {Amro A. Harb and Yufan Chen and Johanna R. Ben-Ami and Michael Francke and Chin Hur and Andrew T. Turk and David A. Gudis},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34436522/},

doi = {10.1001/jamaoto.2021.2121},

issn = {2168-619X},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-10-01},

journal = {JAMA otolaryngology-- head \& neck surgery},

volume = {147},

number = {10},

pages = {914-915},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Jimenez2021,

title = {Do you mind if I record?: Perceptions and practice regarding patient requests to record clinic visits in oncology.},

author = {Rachel B. Jimenez and Andrew E. Johnson and Nora K. Horick and Fay J. Hlubocky and Yvonne Lei and Cindy B. Matsen and Erica L. Mayer and Deborah E. Collyar and Thomas W. LeBlanc and Karen Donelan and Michelle M. Mello and Jeffrey M. Peppercorn},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34633655/},

doi = {10.1002/cncr.33910},

issn = {1097-0142},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-10-01},

journal = {Cancer},

abstract = {Audio recordings of oncology clinic discussions can help patients retain and understand information about their disease and treatment decisions. Access to this tool relies on acceptance of recordings by oncologists. This is the first study to evaluate experience and attitudes of oncologists toward patients recording clinic visits. Medical, radiation, and surgical oncologists from 5 US cancer centers and community affiliates were surveyed to evaluate clinicians' experience, beliefs, and practices regarding patient-initiated recordings. Among 360 oncologists (69% response rate), virtually all (93%) have experienced patients seeking to record visits. Although 75% are comfortable with recording, 25% are uncomfortable and 56% report concerns ranging from less thorough discussions to legal liability. Most (85%) always agree when patients ask to record, but 15% never or selectively allow recording. Although 51% believe recording is positive for the patient-physician relationship, a sizable minority report that it can lead to less detailed conversations (28%) or avoidance of difficult topics, including prognosis (33%). Views did not vary based on subspecialty, practice setting, or geographic region, but older age and years in practice were associated with more positive views of recording. The majority of clinicians (72%) desire institutional policies to govern guidelines about recordings. Most oncologists are comfortable with patient requests to record visits, but a sizable minority remain uncomfortable, and access to recording varies solely on physician preference. This difference in care delivery may benefit from institutional policies that promote access while addressing legitimate physician concerns over privacy and appropriate use of recordings.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{KLee2021b,

title = {Risk of corticosteroid treatment and hospitalization after checkpoint inhibitor and radiation therapy in patients with cancer.},

author = {Kate E. Lee and David A. Bender and Lawrence D. Koutcher and Brigham Hyde and Chin Hur and Adam S. Faye and Simon K. Cheng},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34634130/},

doi = {10.1002/cncr.33975},

issn = {1097-0142},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-10-01},

journal = {Cancer},

abstract = {Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are potent new cancer therapies but can cause serious immune-related adverse events. ICIs have contributed significantly to improved survival and thereby provide more opportunity for the development of local disease symptomatology requiring palliative radiation. Radiation therapy (RT) has also recently shown benefit in the oligometastatic setting. Data on the interaction and safety of concurrent ICIs and RT are limited. In this retrospective cohort study using a large medical claims database from 2010 to 2017, the need for corticosteroid therapy and the risk of hospitalization within 180 days of treatment with an ICI were determined for patients with a diagnosis of malignant melanoma or lung cancer. Patients were stratified by the use of RT within the 30 days before and after ICI therapy. In all, 2020 patients (218 with RT and 1802 without RT) met the inclusion criteria for prednisone analysis, whereas 3519 patients (361 with RT and 3158 without RT) met the inclusion criteria for all other analyses. In a univariable analysis, RT was not associated with the need for prednisone (relative risk [RR], 1.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.8-1.9) or methylprednisolone (RR, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.7-2.0). When the end point was hospitalization, RT was significantly associated with hospitalization after ICI therapy for certain cancer/drug combinations (RR for lung cancer/programmed death 1 receptor inhibitors, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2-1.6; P < .001; RR for melanoma/ipilimumab, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.0-3.5; P = .03). In patients treated with ICIs, receiving RT was not associated with a higher risk of requiring corticosteroid therapy in comparison with not receiving RT. However, RT was associated with a higher risk of hospitalization, although this finding may be a result of differences in the underlying patient illness severity or oncologic disease burden at the baseline. Data on the interaction of immunotherapy (immune checkpoint inhibitors) and radiation therapy and the safety of combining them are limited. Using a large database, this study has found that patients treated concurrently with immune checkpoint inhibitors and radiation therapy are not at increased risk for requiring corticosteroid therapy (which is used as a proxy for immune-related adverse events). However, concurrent therapy is associated with a higher risk of hospitalization, although this finding may be due to differences in the underlying patient illness severity (sicker patients may require both immunotherapy and radiation therapy).},

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}

@article{Xu2021a,

title = {Weather, air pollution, and SARS-CoV-2 transmission: a global analysis.},

author = {Ran Xu and Hazhir Rahmandad and Marichi Gupta and Catherine DiGennaro and Navid Ghaffarzadegan and Heresh Amini and Mohammad S. Jalali},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34627471/},

doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00202-3},

issn = {2542-5196},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-10-01},

journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health},

volume = {5},

number = {10},

pages = {e671--e680},

abstract = {Understanding how environmental factors affect SARS-CoV-2 transmission could inform global containment efforts. Despite high scientific and public interest and multiple research reports, there is currently no consensus on the association of environmental factors and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To address this research gap, we aimed to assess the relative risk of transmission associated with weather conditions and ambient air pollution. In this global analysis, we adjusted for the delay between infection and detection, estimated the daily reproduction number at 3739 global locations during the COVID-19 pandemic up until late April, 2020, and investigated its associations with daily local weather conditions (ie, temperature, humidity, precipitation, snowfall, moon illumination, sunlight hours, ultraviolet index, cloud cover, wind speed and direction, and pressure data) and ambient air pollution (ie, PM , nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and sulphur dioxide). To account for other confounding factors, we included both location-specific fixed effects and trends, controlling for between-location differences and heterogeneities in locations' responses over time. We built confidence in our estimations through synthetic data, robustness, and sensitivity analyses, and provided year-round global projections for weather-related risk of global SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Our dataset included data collected between Dec 12, 2019, and April 22, 2020. Several weather variables and ambient air pollution were associated with the spread of SARS-CoV-2 across 3739 global locations. We found a moderate, negative relationship between the estimated reproduction number and temperatures warmer than 25°C (a decrease of 3·7% [95% CI 1·9-5·4] per additional degree), a U-shaped relationship with outdoor ultraviolet exposure, and weaker positive associations with air pressure, wind speed, precipitation, diurnal temperature, sulphur dioxide, and ozone. Results were robust to multiple assumptions. Independent research building on our estimates provides strong support for the resulting projections across nations. Warmer temperature and moderate outdoor ultraviolet exposure result in a slight reduction in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2; however, changes in weather or air pollution alone are not enough to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 with other factors having greater effects. None.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Laszkowska2021b,

title = {Responses to Wu et al. and Wang et al.},

author = {Monika Laszkowska and Steven Rodriguez and Judith Kim and Chin Hur},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34613956/},

doi = {10.14309/ajg.0000000000001523},

issn = {1572-0241},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-10-01},

journal = {The American journal of gastroenterology},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Khurshid2021a,

title = {Comparative Clinical Effectiveness of Population-Based Atrial Fibrillation Screening Using Contemporary Modalities: A Decision-Analytic Model.},

author = {Shaan Khurshid and Wanyi Chen and Daniel E. Singer and Steven J. Atlas and Jeffrey M. Ashburner and Jin Choi and Chin Hur and Patrick T. Ellinor and David D. McManus and Jagpreet Chhatwal and Steven A. Lubitz},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34476979/},

doi = {10.1161/JAHA.120.020330},

issn = {2047-9980},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-09-21},

urldate = {2021-09-21},

journal = {Journal of the American Heart Association},

volume = {10},

number = {18},

pages = {e021144},

abstract = {Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) screening is endorsed by certain guidelines for individuals aged ≥65 years. Yet many AF screening strategies exist, including the use of wrist-worn wearable devices, and their comparative effectiveness is not well-understood. Methods and Results We developed a decision-analytic model simulating 50 million individuals with an age, sex, and comorbidity profile matching the United States population aged ≥65 years (ie, with a guideline-based AF screening indication). We modeled no screening, in addition to 45 distinct AF screening strategies (comprising different modalities and screening intervals), each initiated at a clinical encounter. The primary effectiveness measure was quality-adjusted life-years, with incident stroke and major bleeding as secondary measures. We defined continuous or nearly continuous modalities as those capable of monitoring beyond a single time-point (eg, patch monitor), and discrete modalities as those capable of only instantaneous AF detection (eg, 12-lead ECG). In total, 10 AF screening strategies were effective compared with no screening (300-1500 quality-adjusted life-years gained/100 000 individuals screened). Nine (90%) effective strategies involved use of a continuous or nearly continuous modality such as patch monitor or wrist-worn wearable device, whereas 1 (10%) relied on discrete modalities alone. Effective strategies reduced stroke incidence (number needed to screen to prevent a stroke: 3087-4445) but increased major bleeding (number needed to screen to cause a major bleed: 1815-4049) and intracranial hemorrhage (number needed to screen to cause intracranial hemorrhage: 7693-16 950). The test specificity was a highly influential model parameter on screening effectiveness. Conclusions When modeled from a clinician-directed perspective, the comparative effectiveness of population-based AF screening varies substantially upon the specific strategy used. Future screening interventions and guidelines should consider the relative effectiveness of specific AF screening strategies.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Khatami2021,

title = {A reinforcement learning model to inform optimal decision paths for HIV elimination.},

author = {Seyedeh N. Khatami and Chaitra Gopalappa},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34814269/},

doi = {10.3934/mbe.2021380},

issn = {1551-0018},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-09-01},

journal = {Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE},

volume = {18},

issue = {6},

pages = {7666--7684},

abstract = {The 'Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE)' national plan aims to reduce annual HIV incidence in the United States from 38,000 in 2015 to 9300 by 2025 and 3300 by 2030. Diagnosis and treatment are two most effective interventions, and thus, identifying corresponding optimal combinations of testing and retention-in-care rates would help inform implementation of relevant programs. Considering the dynamic and stochastic complexity of the disease and the time dynamics of decision-making, solving for optimal combinations using commonly used methods of parametric optimization or exhaustive evaluation of pre-selected options are infeasible. Reinforcement learning (RL), an artificial intelligence method, is ideal; however, training RL algorithms and ensuring convergence to optimality are computationally challenging for large-scale stochastic problems. We evaluate its feasibility in the context of the EHE goal. We trained an RL algorithm to identify a 'sequence' of combinations of HIV-testing and retention-in-care rates at 5-year intervals over 2015-2070 that optimally leads towards HIV elimination. We defined optimality as a sequence that maximizes quality-adjusted-life-years lived and minimizes HIV-testing and care-and-treatment costs. We show that solving for testing and retention-in-care rates through appropriate reformulation using proxy decision-metrics overcomes the computational challenges of RL. We used a stochastic agent-based simulation to train the RL algorithm. As there is variability in support-programs needed to address barriers to care-access, we evaluated the sensitivity of optimal decisions to three cost-functions. The model suggests to scale-up retention-in-care programs to achieve and maintain high annual retention-rates while initiating with a high testing-frequency but relaxing it over a 10-year period as incidence decreases. Results were mainly robust to the uncertainty in costs. However, testing and retention-in-care alone did not achieve the 2030 EHE targets, suggesting the need for additional interventions. The results from the model demonstrated convergence. RL is suitable for evaluating phased public health decisions for infectious disease control.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {ppublish},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Wright2021,

title = {Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Genotype-Specific Surveillance and Preventive Strategies for Gynecologic Cancers Among Women With Lynch Syndrome.},

author = {Jason D. Wright and Elisabeth R. Silver and Sarah Xinhui Tan and Chin Hur and Fay Kastrinos},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34499134/},

doi = {10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.23616},

issn = {2574-3805},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-09-01},

journal = {JAMA network open},

volume = {4},

pages = {e2123616},

abstract = {With the expansion of multigene testing for cancer susceptibility, Lynch syndrome (LS) has become more readily identified among women. The condition is caused by germline pathogenic variants in DNA mismatch repair genes (ie, MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, and PMS2) and is associated with high but variable risks of endometrial and ovarian cancers based on genotype. However, current guidelines on preventive strategies are not specific to genotypes. To assess the cost-effectiveness of genotype-specific surveillance and preventive strategies for LS-associated gynecologic cancers, including a novel, risk-reducing surgical approach associated with decreased early surgically induced menopause. This economic evaluation developed a cohort-level Markov simulation model of the natural history of LS-associated gynecologic cancer for each gene, among women from ages 25 to 75 years or until death from a health care perspective. Age was varied at hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (hyst-BSO) and at surveillance initiation, and a 2-stage surgical approach (ie, hysterectomy and salpingectomy at age 40 years and delayed oophorectomy at age 50 years [hyst-BS]) was included. Extensive 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Hyst-BSO at ages 35 years, 40 years, or 50 years with or without annual surveillance beginning at age 30 years or 35 years or hyst-BS at age 40 years with oophorectomy delayed until age 50 years. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) between management strategies within an efficiency frontier. For women with MLH1 and MSH6 variants, the optimal strategy was the 2-stage approach, with respective ICERs of $33 269 and $20 008 compared with hyst-BSO at age 40 years. Despite being cost-effective, the 2-stage approach was associated with increased cancer incidence and mortality compared with hyst-BSO at age 40 years for individuals with MLH1 variants (incidence: 7.76% vs 3.84%; mortality: 5.74% vs 2.55%) and those with MSH6 variants (incidence: 7.24% vs 4.52%; mortality: 5.22% vs 2.97%). Hyst-BSO at age 40 years was optimal for individuals with MSH2 variants, with an ICER of $5180 compared with hyst-BSO at age 35 years, and was associated with 4.42% cancer incidence and 2.97% cancer mortality. For individuals with PMS2 variants, hyst-BSO at age 50 years was optimal and all other strategies were dominated; hyst-BSO at age 50 years was associated with an estimated cancer incidence of 0.68% and cancer mortality of 0.29%. These findings suggest that gene-specific preventive strategies for gynecologic cancers in LS may be warranted and support hyst-BSO at age 40 years for individuals with MSH2 variants. For individuals with MLH1 and MSH6 variants, these findings suggest that a novel 2-stage surgical approach with delayed oophorectomy may be an alternative to hyst-BSO at age 40 years to avoid early menopause, and for individuals with PMS2 variants, the findings suggest that hyst-BSO may be delayed until age 50 years.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Auerbach2021,

title = {Optimal Staffing Models To Care For Frail Older Adults In Primary Care And Geriatrics Practices In The US.},

author = {David I. Auerbach and Douglas E. Levy and Peter Maramaldi and Robert S. Dittus and Joanne Spetz and Peter I. Buerhaus and Karen Donelan},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34495726/},

doi = {10.1377/hlthaff.2021.00401},

issn = {1544-5208},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-09-01},

urldate = {2021-09-01},

journal = {Health affairs (Project Hope)},

volume = {40},

number = {9},

pages = {1368--1376},

abstract = {Different staffing configurations in primary and geriatric care practices could have implications for how best to deliver services that are essential for a growing population of older adults. Using data from a 2018 survey of physicians (MDs) and nurse practitioners (NPs) working in primary and geriatric care, we assessed whether different configurations were associated with better or worse performance on a number of standard process measures indicative of comprehensive, high-quality primary care. Practices with a large concentration of MDs had the highest estimated labor costs. Practices high in NPs and physician assistants (PAs) were most common in states that grant full scope of practice to NPs. The high-NP/PA configuration was associated with a 17-percentage-point greater probability of facilitating patient visits and a 26-percentage-point greater probability of providing the full bundle of primary care services compared with the high-MD model. Team-based configurations had a 27.7-percentage-point greater probability of providing the full bundle of primary care services. The complex needs of older adults may be best served by team-based practices with a broad provider mix that can provide a range of services in the office and the community.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Kuo2021,

title = {Four-dimensional computed tomography (4D-CT) for preoperative parathyroid localization: A good study but are we using it?},

author = {Lindsay E. Kuo and Sarah H. Bird and Carrie C. Lubitz and T. K. Pandian and Sareh Parangi and Antonia E. Stephen},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34579935/},

doi = {10.1016/j.amjsurg.2021.09.015},

issn = {1879-1883},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-09-01},

urldate = {2021-09-01},

journal = {American journal of surgery},

volume = {224},

issue = {4},

pages = {694-698},

abstract = {Four-dimensional computed tomography (4D-CT) scan to localize abnormal parathyroid glands is diagnostically superior to ultrasound (US) and sestamibi. The implementation of 4D-CT imaging is unknown. The Collaborative Endocrine Surgery Quality Improvement Program (CESQIP) database from 2014 to 2018 was utilized. Patients with hyperparathyroidism undergoing an initial operation were included. The rate of US, sestamibi and 4D-CT performance was calculated for the entire study population, and for each institution. 7,959 patients were included. In 311(3.9%) patients, no preoperative imaging was recorded. Of patients with imaging, US was performed in 6,872(86.3%), sestamibi in 5,094(64.0%), and 4D-CT in 1,630(20.4%). The combination of US and sestamibi was most frequent (3,855, 48.4%). Institutional rates of 4D-CT performance varied from 0.1% to 88.7%. Of the imaging modalities, 4D-CT was utilized least frequently and with greatest variability. Given the high accuracy of 4D-CT, efforts to reduce this variation may improve overall preoperative localization in patients with hyperparathyroidism.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Sprague2021a,

title = {Changes in Mammography Use by Women's Characteristics During the First 5 Months of the COVID-19 Pandemic.},

author = {Brian L. Sprague and Kathryn Lowry and Diana L. Miglioretti and Nila Alsheik and Erin J. A. Bowles and Anna N. A. Tosteson and Garth Rauscher and Sally D. Herschorn and Janie Lee and Amy Trentham-Dietz and Davis Weaver and Natasha K. Stout and Karla Kerlikowske},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33778894/},

doi = {10.1093/jnci/djab045},

issn = {1460-2105},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-09-01},

journal = {Journal of the National Cancer Institute},

volume = {113},

pages = {1161--1167},

abstract = {The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to a near-total cessation of mammography services in the United States in mid-March 2020. It is unclear if screening and diagnostic mammography volumes have recovered to prepandemic levels and whether use has varied by women's characteristics. We collected data on 461 083 screening mammograms and 112 207 diagnostic mammograms conducted during January 2019 through July 2020 at 62 radiology facilities in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. We compared monthly screening and diagnostic mammography volumes before and during the pandemic stratified by age, race and ethnicity, breast density, and family history of breast cancer. Screening and diagnostic mammography volumes in April 2020 were 1.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.5% to 2.4%) and 21.4% (95% CI = 18.7% to 24.4%) of the April 2019 prepandemic volumes, respectively, but by July 2020 had rebounded to 89.7% (95% CI = 79.6% to 101.1%) and 101.6% (95% CI = 93.8% to 110.1%) of the July 2019 prepandemic volumes, respectively. The year-to-date cumulative volume of screening and diagnostic mammograms performed through July 2020 was 66.2% (95% CI = 60.3% to 72.6%) and 79.9% (95% CI = 75.4% to 84.6%), respectively, of year-to-date volume through July 2019. Screening mammography rebound was similar across age groups and by family history of breast cancer. Monthly screening mammography volume in July 2020 for Black, White, Hispanic, and Asian women reached 96.7% (95% CI = 88.1% to 106.1%), 92.9% (95% CI = 82.9% to 104.0%), 72.7% (95% CI = 56.5% to 93.6%), and 51.3% (95% CI = 39.7% to 66.2%) of the July 2019 prepandemic volume, respectively. Despite a strong overall rebound in mammography volume by July 2020, the rebound lagged among Asian and Hispanic women, and a substantial cumulative deficit in missed mammograms accumulated, which may have important health consequences.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Wouters2021,

title = {The anemia-independent impact of myelodysplastic syndromes on health-related quality of life.},

author = {Hanneke J. C. M. Wouters and Annette Conrads-Frank and Karin A. Koinig and Alex Smith and Ge Yu and Theo Witte and Bruce H. R. Wolffenbuttel and Gerwin Huls and Uwe Siebert and Reinhard Stauder and Melanie M. Klauw and M. D. S. -R. I. G. H. T. partners},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34476573/},

doi = {10.1007/s00277-021-04654-1},

issn = {1432-0584},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-09-01},

journal = {Annals of hematology},

volume = {100},

pages = {2921--2932},

abstract = {Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) are in the majority of cases characterized by anemia. Both anemia and MDS per se may directly contribute to impairments in health-related quality of life (HRQoL). In this study, we aimed to investigate the anemia-independent impact of MDS on HRQoL. We evaluated participants (≥ 50 years) from the large population-based Lifelines cohort (N = 44,694, mean age 59.0 ± 7.4 years, 43.6% male) and the European MDS Registry (EUMDS) (N = 1538, mean age 73.4 ± 9.0 years, 63.0% male), which comprises a cohort of lower-risk MDS patients. To enable comparison concerning HRQoL, SF-36 scores measured in Lifelines were converted to EQ-5D-3L index (range 0-1) and dimension scores. Lower-risk MDS patients had significantly lower HRQoL than those from the Lifelines cohort, as illustrated in both the index score and in the five different dimensions. Multivariable linear regression analysis demonstrated that MDS had an adjusted total impact on the EQ-5D index score (B = - 0.12, p < 0.001) and an anemia-independent "direct" impact (B = - 0.10, p < 0.001). Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed an anemia-independent impact of MDS in the dimension mobility, self-care, usual activities, and anxiety/depression (all except pain/discomfort). This study demonstrates that the major part of the negative impact of lower-risk MDS on HRQoL is not mediated via anemia. Thus, the therapeutic focus should include treatment strategies directed at underlying pathogenic mechanisms to improve HRQoL, rather than aiming predominantly at increasing hemoglobin levels.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {ppublish},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{pmid34378462,

title = {Assessing Interventions That Prevent Multiple Infectious Diseases: Simple Methods for Multidisease Modeling},

author = {Anneke L Claypool and Jeremy D Goldhaber-Fiebert and Margaret L Brandeau},

doi = {10.1177/0272989X211033287},

issn = {1552-681X},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-08-01},

journal = {Med Decis Making},

pages = {272989X211033287},

abstract = {BACKGROUND: Many cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) only consider outcomes for a single disease when comparing interventions that prevent or treat 1 disease (e.g., vaccination) to interventions that prevent or treat multiple diseases (e.g., vector control to prevent mosquito-borne diseases). An intervention targeted to a single disease may be preferred to a broader intervention in a single-disease model, but this conclusion might change if outcomes from the additional diseases were included. However, multidisease models are often complex and difficult to construct.



METHODS: We present conditions for when multiple diseases should be considered in such a CEA. We propose methods for estimating health outcomes and costs associated with control of additional diseases using parallel single-disease models. Parallel modeling can incorporate competing mortality and coinfection from multiple diseases while maintaining model simplicity. We illustrate our approach with a CEA that compares a dengue vaccine, a chikungunya vaccine, and mosquito control via insecticide and mosquito nets, which can prevent dengue, chikungunya, Zika, and yellow fever.



RESULTS: The parallel models and the multidisease model generated similar estimates of disease incidence and deaths with much less complexity. When using this method in our case study, considering only chikungunya and dengue, the preferred strategy was insecticide. A broader strategy-insecticide plus long-lasting insecticide-treated nets-was not preferred when Zika and yellow fever were included, suggesting the conclusion is robust even without the explicit inclusion of all affected diseases.



LIMITATIONS: Parallel modeling assumes independent probabilities of infection for each disease.



CONCLUSIONS: When multidisease effects are important, our parallel modeling method can be used to model multiple diseases accurately while avoiding additional complexity.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Ozanne2021,

title = {Surveillance Cessation for Barrett's Esophagus: A Survey of Gastroenterologists.},

author = {Elissa M. Ozanne and Elisabeth R. Silver and Sameer D. Saini and Joel H. Rubenstein and Iris Lansdorp-Vogelaar and Nicole Bowers and Sarah Xinhui Tan and John M. Inadomi and Chin Hur},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34049319/},

doi = {10.14309/ajg.0000000000001323},

issn = {1572-0241},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-08-01},

journal = {The American journal of gastroenterology},

volume = {116},

pages = {1730--1733},

abstract = {Regular endoscopic surveillance is the gold standard Barrett's esophagus (BE) surveillance, yet harms of surveillance for some patients may outweigh the benefits. We sought to characterize physicians' BE surveillance cessation recommendations. We surveyed gastroenterologists about their BE surveillance recommendations varying patient age, comorbidity, and BE length. Clinicians varied in recommendations for repeat surveillance. Patient age showed the largest variation among decisions, whereas BE length varied the least. Age and comorbidities seem to influence BE surveillance cessation decisions, but with variation. Clear cessation guidelines balancing the risks and benefits for BE surveillance are warranted.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {ppublish},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Lauren2021,

title = {Predictors of households at risk for food insecurity in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic.},

author = {Brianna N Lauren and Elisabeth R Silver and Adam S Faye and Alexandra M Rogers and Jennifer A Woo Baidal and Elissa Ozanne and Chin Hur},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33500018/},

doi = {10.1017/S1368980021000355},

issn = {1475-2727},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-08-01},

journal = {Public health nutrition},

volume = {24},

number = {12},

pages = {3929-3036},

abstract = {To examine associations between sociodemographic and mental health characteristics with household risk for food insecurity during the COVID-19 outbreak. Cross-sectional online survey analyzed using univariable tests and a multivariable logistic regression model. The United States during the week of March 30, 2020. Convenience sample of 1,965 American adults using Amazon's Mechanical Turk (MTurk) platform. Participants reporting household food insecurity prior to the pandemic were excluded from analyses. 1,250 participants reported household food security before the COVID-19 outbreak. Among this subset, 41% were identified as at risk for food insecurity after COVID-19, 55% were women and 73% were white. On multivariable analysis, race, income, relationship status, living situation, anxiety, and depression were significantly associated with incident risk for food insecurity. Black, Asian, and Hispanic/Latino respondents, respondents with annual income less than $100,000, and those living with children or others were significantly more likely to be newly at risk for food insecurity. Individuals at risk for food insecurity were 2.60 (95% CI 1.91-3.55) times more likely to screen positively for anxiety and 1.71 (95% CI 1.21-2.42) times more likely to screen positively for depression. Increased risk for food insecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic is common, and certain populations are particularly vulnerable. There are strong associations between being at risk for food insecurity and anxiety/depression. Interventions to increase access to healthful foods, especially among minority and low-income individuals, and ease the socioemotional effects of the outbreak are crucial to relieving the economic stress of this pandemic.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Weinstein2021,

title = {Is Resident-Driven Inpatient Care More Expensive? Challenging a Long-Held Assumption.},

author = {Debra F Weinstein and Jin Choi and Nathaniel Mercaldo and Natalie Stump and Molly L Paras and Rhodes A Berube and Chin Hur},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33496432/},

doi = {10.1097/ACM.0000000000003939},

issn = {1938-808X},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-08-01},

urldate = {2021-01-01},

journal = {Academic medicine : journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges},

volume = {96},

number = {1205-1212},

issue = {8},

abstract = {The financial impact of graduate medical education (GME) on teaching hospitals remains poorly understood, while calls for increased federal support continue alongside legislative threats to reduce funding. Despite studies suggesting that residents are more "economical" than alternative providers, GME is widely believed to be an expensive investment. Assumptions that residents increase the cost of patient care have persisted in the absence of emerging evidence to the contrary. Thus, the authors sought to examine resident influence on patient care costs by comparing costs between a resident-driven service (RS) and a nonresident-covered service (NRS), with attention to clinical outcomes and how potential cost differences relate to the utilization of resources, length of stay (LOS), and other factors. This prospective study compared costs and clinical outcomes of internal medicine patients admitted to a RS versus an NRS at Massachusetts General Hospital (July 1, 2016-June 30, 2017). Total variable direct costs of inpatient admission was the primary outcome measure. LOS; 30-day readmission rate; utilization related to diagnostic radiology, pharmaceuticals, and clinical labs; and other outcome measures were also compared. Linear regression models quantified the relationship between log-transformed variable direct costs and service. Baseline characteristics of 5,448 patients on the 2 services (3,250 on a RS and 2,198 on an NRS) were similar. On a RS, patient care costs were slightly less and LOS was slightly shorter than on an NRS, with no significant differences in hospital mortality or 30-day readmission rate detected. Resource utilization was comparable between the services. These findings undermine long-held assumptions that residents increase the cost of patient care. Though not generalizable to ambulatory settings or other specialties, this study can help inform hospital decision-making around sponsorship of GME programs, especially if federal funding for GME remains capped or is subject to additional reductions.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Lee2021,

title = {Digital Mammography and Breast Tomosynthesis Performance in Women with a Personal History of Breast Cancer, 2007-2016.},

author = {Janie Lee and Laura E Ichikawa and Karen J Wernli and Erin Bowles and Jennifer M Specht and Karla Kerlikowske and Diana L Miglioretti and Kathryn Lowry and Anna N A Tosteson and Natasha K Stout and Nehmat Houssami and Tracy Onega and Diana S M Buist},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34003059/},

doi = {10.1148/radiol.2021204581},

issn = {1527-1315},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-08-01},

journal = {Radiology},

volume = {300},

number = {2},

pages = {290-300},

abstract = {Background Since 2007, digital mammography and digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) replaced screen-film mammography. Whether these technologic advances have improved diagnostic performance has, to the knowledge of the authors, not yet been established. Purpose To evaluate the performance and outcomes of surveillance mammography (digital mammography and DBT) performed from 2007 to 2016 in women with a personal history of breast cancer and compare with data from 1996 to 2007 and the performance of digital mammography screening benchmarks. Materials and Methods In this observational cohort study, five Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium registries provided prospectively collected mammography data linked with tumor registry and pathologic outcomes. This study identified asymptomatic women with American Joint Committee on Cancer anatomic stages 0-III primary breast cancer who underwent surveillance mammography from 2007 to 2016. The primary outcome was a second breast cancer diagnosis within 1 year of mammography. Performance measures included the recall rate, cancer detection rate, interval cancer rate, positive predictive value of biopsy recommendation, sensitivity, and specificity. Results Among 32 331 women who underwent 117 971 surveillance mammographic examinations (112 269 digital mammographic examinations and 5702 DBT examinations), the mean age at initial diagnosis was 59 years ± 12 (standard deviation). Of 1418 second breast cancers diagnosed, 998 were surveillance-detected cancers and 420 were interval cancers. The recall rate was 8.8% (10 365 of 117 971; 95% CI: 8.6%, 9.0%), the cancer detection rate was 8.5 per 1000 examinations (998 of 117 971; 95% CI: 8.0, 9.0), the interval cancer rate was 3.6 per 1000 examinations (420 of 117 971; 95% CI: 3.2, 3.9), the positive predictive value of biopsy recommendation was 31.0% (998 of 3220; 95% CI: 29.4%, 32.7%), the sensitivity was 70.4% (998 of 1418; 95% CI: 67.9%, 72.7%), and the specificity was 98.1% (114 331 of 116 553; 95% CI: 98.0%, 98.2%). Compared with previously published studies, interval cancer rate was comparable with rates from 1996 to 2007 in women with a personal history of breast cancer and was higher than the published digital mammography screening benchmarks. Conclusion In transitioning from screen-film to digital mammography and digital breast tomosynthesis, surveillance mammography performance demonstrated minimal improvement over time and remained inferior to the performance of screening mammography benchmarks. © RSNA, 2021 See also the editorial by Moy and Gao in this issue.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Muehlberger2021,

title = {Cost effectiveness of breast cancer screening and prevention: a systematic review with a focus on risk-adapted strategies.},

author = {Nikolai M\"{u}hlberger and Gaby Sroczynski and Artemisa Gogollari and Beate Jahn and Nora Pashayan and Ewout Steyerberg and Martin Widschwendter and Uwe Siebert},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34342797/},

doi = {10.1007/s10198-021-01338-5},

issn = {1618-7601},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-08-01},

journal = {The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care},

abstract = {Benefit and cost effectiveness of breast cancer screening are still matters of controversy. Risk-adapted strategies are proposed to improve its benefit-harm and cost-benefit relations. Our objective was to perform a systematic review on economic breast cancer models evaluating primary and secondary prevention strategies in the European health care setting, with specific focus on model results, model characteristics, and risk-adapted strategies. Literature databases were systematically searched for economic breast cancer models evaluating the cost effectiveness of breast cancer screening and prevention strategies in the European health care context. Characteristics, methodological details and results of the identified studies are reported in evidence tables. Economic model outputs are standardized to achieve comparable cost-effectiveness ratios. Thirty-two economic evaluations of breast cancer screening and seven evaluations of primary breast cancer prevention were included. Five screening studies and none of the prevention studies considered risk-adapted strategies. Studies differed in methodologic features. Only about half of the screening studies modeled overdiagnosis-related harms, most often indirectly and without reporting their magnitude. All models predict gains in life expectancy and/or quality-adjusted life expectancy at acceptable costs. However, risk-adapted screening was shown to be more effective and efficient than conventional screening. Economic models suggest that breast cancer screening and prevention are cost effective in the European setting. All screening models predict gains in life expectancy, which has not yet been confirmed by trials. European models evaluating risk-adapted screening strategies are rare, but suggest that risk-adapted screening is more effective and efficient than conventional screening.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Rogers2021,

title = {Persistent effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on diet, exercise, risk for food insecurity, and quality of life: A longitudinal study among U.S. adults.},

author = {Alexandra M. Rogers and Brianna N. Lauren and Jennifer A. Woo Baidal and Elissa Ozanne and Chin Hur},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34384807/},

doi = {10.1016/j.appet.2021.105639},

issn = {1095-8304},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-08-01},

urldate = {2021-08-01},

journal = {Appetite},

volume = {167},

pages = {105639},

abstract = {COVID-19 has affected the health and well-being of almost every American. The aim of this study was to examine the sustained impacts of COVID-19 prevention measures on the diet and exercise habits, risk for food insecurity, and quality of life among adults in the U.S. We conducted a longitudinal study using a convenience sample of participants recruited via Amazon's Mechanical Turk (MTurk) platform between March 30 and April 7, 2020, and 8 months into the outbreak, from November 2 to November 21, 2020. We compared self-reported diet and exercise habits and risk for food insecurity shortly after the pandemic began, in April, to those reported in November. We also measured changes in quality-of-life using the PROMIS-29 + 2 (PROPr) scale. A total of 636 respondents completed both surveys. Compared to reports in April, respondents ate lunch and dinner out more frequently in November and consumed more take-out and fast food. Weekly frequencies of consuming frozen food and the number of daily meals were slightly lower in November than they were in April. 54% of respondents screened positively for being at risk for food insecurity in April, reducing to 41% by November. In April, survey respondents were found to have lower quality-of-life relative to U.S. population norms, but by November levels of depression and cognitive function had improved. Our findings underscore how the initial effects of the pandemic on diet, exercise, risk for food insecurity, and quality of life have evolved. As U.S. states re-open, continued efforts to encourage healthy eating and support mental health, especially to reduce feelings of anxiety and social isolation, remain important to mitigate the potential long-term effects of the pandemic.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Khurshid2021,

title = {Comparative Effectiveness of Implantable Defibrillators for Asymptomatic Brugada Syndrome: A Decision-Analytic Model.},

author = {Shaan Khurshid and Wanyi Chen and Weeranun D. Bode and Jason H. Wasfy and Jagpreet Chhatwal and Steven A. Lubitz},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34387130/},

doi = {10.1161/JAHA.121.021144},

issn = {2047-9980},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-08-01},

journal = {Journal of the American Heart Association},

pages = {e021144},

abstract = {Background Optimal management of asymptomatic Brugada syndrome (BrS) with spontaneous type I electrocardiographic pattern is uncertain. Methods and Results We developed an individual-level simulation comprising 2 000 000 average-risk individuals with asymptomatic BrS and spontaneous type I electrocardiographic pattern. We compared (1) observation, (2) electrophysiologic study (EPS)-guided implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD), and (3) upfront ICD, each using either subcutaneous or transvenous ICD, resulting in 6 strategies tested. The primary outcome was quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), with cardiac deaths (arrest or procedural-related) as a secondary outcome. We varied BrS diagnosis age and underlying arrest rate. We assessed cost-effectiveness at $100 000/QALY. Compared with observation, EPS-guided subcutaneous ICD resulted in 0.35 QALY gain/individual and 4130 cardiac deaths avoided/100 000 individuals, and EPS-guided transvenous ICD resulted in 0.26 QALY gain and 3390 cardiac deaths avoided. Compared with observation, upfront ICD reduced cardiac deaths by a greater margin (subcutaneous ICD, 8950; transvenous ICD, 6050), but only subcutaneous ICD improved QALYs (subcutaneous ICD, 0.25 QALY gain; transvenous ICD, 0.01 QALY loss), and complications were higher. ICD-based strategies were more effective at younger ages and higher arrest rates (eg, using subcutaneous devices, upfront ICD was the most effective strategy at ages 20-39.4 years and arrest rates >1.37%/year; EPS-guided ICD was the most effective strategy at ages 39.5-51.3 years and arrest rates 0.47%-1.37%/year, and observation was the most effective strategy at ages >51.3 years and arrest rates <0.47%/year). EPS-guided subcutaneous ICD was cost-effective ($80 508/QALY). Conclusions Device-based approaches (with or without EPS risk stratification) can be more effective than observation among selected patients with asymptomatic BrS. BrS management should be tailored to patient characteristics.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Toumi2021,

title = {Association of Limited In-Person Attendance in US National Football League and National Collegiate Athletic Association Games With County-Level COVID-19 Cases.},

author = {Asmae Toumi and Haoruo Zhao and Jagpreet Chhatwal and Benjamin P. Linas and Turgay Ayer},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34402891/},

doi = {10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.19621},

issn = {2574-3805},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-08-01},

urldate = {2021-08-01},

journal = {JAMA network open},

volume = {4},

pages = {e2119621},

abstract = {In 2020 and early 2021, the National Football League (NFL) and National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) opted to host football games in stadiums across the country. The in-person attendance of games varied with time and from county to county. There is currently no evidence on whether limited in-person attendance of games is associated with COVID-19 case numbers on a county-level. To assess whether NFL and NCAA football games with limited in-person attendance were associated with increased COVID-19 cases in the counties they were held compared with a matched set of counties. In this time-series cross-sectional study, every county hosting NFL or NCAA games with in-person attendance (treated group) in 2020 and 2021 was matched with a county that that did not host a game on the corresponding day but had an identical game history for up to 14 days prior (control group). A standard matching method was used to further refine this matched set so that the treated and matched control counties had similar population size, nonpharmaceutical interventions in place, and COVID-19 trends. The association of hosting games with in-person attendance with COVID-19 cases was assessed using a difference-in-difference estimator. Data were analyzed from August 29 to December 28, 2020. Hosting NFL or NCAA games. The main outcome was estimation of new COVID-19 cases per 100 000 residents at the county level reported up to 14 days after a game among counties with NFL and NCAA games with in-person attendance. A total of 528 games with in-person attendance (101 NFL games [19.1%]; 427 NCAA games [80.9%]) were included. The matching algorithm returned 361 matching sets of counties. The median (interquartile range [IQR]) number of attendance for NFL games was 9949 (6000 to 13 797) people. The median number of attendance for NCAA games was not available, and attendance was recorded as a binary variable. The median (IQR) daily new COVID-19 cases in treatment group counties hosting games was 26.14 (10.77-50.25) cases per 100 000 residents on game day. The median (IQR) daily new COVID-19 cases in control group counties where no games were played was 24.11 (9.64-48.55) cases per 100 000 residents on game day. The treatment effect size ranged from -5.17 to 4.72, with a mean (SD) of 1.21 (2.67) cases per 100 000 residents, within the 14-day period in all counties hosting the games, and the daily treatment effect trend remained relatively steady during this period. This cross-sectional study did not find a consistent increase in the daily COVID-19 cases per 100 000 residents in counties where NFL and NCAA games were held with limited in-person attendance. These findings suggest that NFL and NCAA football games hosted with limited in-person attendance were not associated with substantial risk for increased local COVID-19 cases.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Leerapan2021,

title = {How systems respond to policies: intended and unintended consequences of COVID-19 lockdown policies in Thailand.},

author = {Borwornsom Leerapan and Phanuwich Kaewkamjornchai and Rifat Atun and Mohammad S. Jalali},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34435199/},

doi = {10.1093/heapol/czab103},

issn = {1460-2237},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-08-01},

journal = {Health policy and planning},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Kim2021,

title = {Minimal Associations between Short-Term Dietary Intake and Salivary Microbiome Composition.},

author = {Judith Kim and Minyi Lee and Brittany Baldwin-Hunter and Quinn S. Solfisburg and Charles J. Lightdale and Tal Korem and Chin Hur and Julian A. Abrams},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34442819/},

doi = {10.3390/microorganisms9081739},

issn = {2076-2607},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-08-01},

journal = {Microorganisms},

volume = {9},

abstract = {Increasing evidence points to the esophageal microbiome as an important co-factor in esophageal neoplasia. Esophageal microbiome composition is strongly influenced by the oral microbiome. Salivary microbiome assessment has emerged as a potential non-invasive tool to identify patients at risk for esophageal cancer, but key host and environmental factors that may affect the salivary microbiome have not been well-defined. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of short-term dietary intake on salivary microbiome composition. Saliva samples were collected from 69 subjects prior to upper endoscopy who completed the Automated Self-Administered 24-Hour (ASA24) Dietary Assessment. Salivary microbiome composition was determined using 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing. There was no significant correlation between alpha diversity and primary measures of short-term dietary intake (total daily calories, fat, fiber, fruit/vegetables, red meat intake, and fasting time). There was no evidence of clustering on beta diversity analyses. Very few taxonomic alterations were found for short-term dietary intake; an increased relative abundance of and was associated with high fruit and vegetable intake, and an increased relative abundance of a taxon in the family was associated with increased red meat intake. Short-term dietary intake was associated with only minimal salivary microbiome alterations and does not appear to have a major impact on the potential use of the salivary microbiome as a biomarker for esophageal neoplasia.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Rustgi2021a,

title = {Testing and Treating Helicobacter Pylori Infection in Individuals with Family History of Gastric Cancer is Cost-effective.},

author = {Sheila D. Rustgi and Aaron Oh and Chin Hur},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34461053/},

doi = {10.1053/j.gastro.2021.08.042},

issn = {1528-0012},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-08-01},

journal = {Gastroenterology},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Forster2021,

title = {Cost-effective clinical trial design: Application of a Bayesian sequential model to the ProFHER pragmatic trial.},

author = {Martin Forster and Stephen Brealey and Stephen Chick and Ada Keding and Belen Corbacho and Andres Alban and Paolo Pertile and Amar Rangan},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34407641/},

doi = {10.1177/17407745211032909},

issn = {1740-7753},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-08-01},

journal = {Clinical trials (London, England)},

pages = {17407745211032909},

abstract = {There is growing interest in the use of adaptive designs to improve the efficiency of clinical trials. We apply a Bayesian decision-theoretic model of a sequential experiment using cost and outcome data from the ProFHER pragmatic trial. We assess the model's potential for delivering value-based research. Using parameter values estimated from the ProFHER pragmatic trial, including the costs of carrying out the trial, we establish when the trial could have stopped, had the model's value-based stopping rule been used. We use a bootstrap analysis and simulation study to assess a range of operating characteristics, which we compare with a fixed sample size design which does not allow for early stopping. We estimate that application of the model could have stopped the ProFHER trial early, reducing the sample size by about 14%, saving about 5% of the research budget and resulting in a technology recommendation which was the same as that of the trial. The bootstrap analysis suggests that the expected sample size would have been 38% lower, saving around 13% of the research budget, with a probability of 0.92 of making the same technology recommendation decision. It also shows a large degree of variability in the trial's sample size. Benefits to trial cost stewardship may be achieved by monitoring trial data as they accumulate and using a stopping rule which balances the benefit of obtaining more information through continued recruitment with the cost of obtaining that information. We present recommendations for further research investigating the application of value-based sequential designs.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Dalgic2021,

title = {Mapping of Critical Events in Disease Progression through Binary Classification: Application to Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis.},

author = {Ozden Onur Dalgic and Haoran Wu and F. Safa Erenay and Mustafa Y. Sir and Osman Y. \"{O}zaltın and Brian A. Crum and Kalyan S. Pasupathy and Pooled Resource Open-Access A. L. S. Clinical Trials Consortiu},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34450286/},

doi = {10.1016/j.jbi.2021.103895},

issn = {1532-0480},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-08-01},

journal = {Journal of biomedical informatics},

volume = {123},

pages = {103895},

abstract = {The progression of many degenerative diseases is tracked periodically using scales evaluating functionality in daily activities. Although estimating the timing of critical events (i.e., disease tollgates) during degenerative disease progression is desirable, the necessary data may not be readily available in scale records. Further, analysis of disease progression poses data challenges, such as censoring and misclassification errors, which need to be addressed to provide meaningful research findings and inform patients. We developed a novel binary classification approach to map scale scores into disease tollgates to describe disease progression leveraging standard/modified Kaplan-Meier analyses. The approach is demonstrated by estimating progression pathways in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Tollgate-based ALS Staging System (TASS) specifies the critical events (i.e., tollgates) in ALS progression. We first developed a binary classification predicting whether each TASS tollgate was passed given the itemized ALSFRS-R scores using 514 ALS patients' data from Mayo Clinic-Rochester. Then, we utilized the binary classification to translate/map the ALSFRS-R data of 3,264 patients from the PRO-ACT database into TASS. We derived the time trajectories of ALS progression through tollgates from the augmented PRO-ACT data using Kaplan-Meier analyses. The effects of misclassification errors, condition-dependent dropouts, and censored data in trajectory estimations were evaluated with Interval Censored Kaplan Meier Analysis and Multistate Model for Panel Data. The approach using Mayo Clinic data accurately estimated tollgate-passed states of patients given their itemized ALSFRS-R scores (AUCs>0.90). The tollgate time trajectories derived from the augmented PRO-ACT dataset provide valuable insights; we predicted that the majority of the ALS patients would have modified arm function (67%) and require assistive devices for walking (53%) by the second year after ALS onset. By the third year, most (74%) ALS patients would occasionally use a wheelchair, while 48% of the ALS patients would be wheelchair-dependent by the fourth year. Assistive speech devices and feeding tubes were needed in 49% and 30% of the patients by the third year after ALS onset, respectively. The onset body region alters some tollgate passage time estimations by 1-2 years. The estimated tollgate-based time trajectories inform patients and clinicians about prospective assistive device needs and life changes. More research is needed to personalize these estimations according to prognostic factors. Further, the approach can be leveraged in the progression of other diseases.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {ppublish},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Fligor2021,

title = {ASO Author Reflections: Does Timely Surgery Matter in Papillary Thyroid Cancer?},

author = {Scott C Fligor and Carrie C. Lubitz and Benjamin C James},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33755830/},

doi = {10.1245/s10434-021-09799-x},

issn = {1534-4681},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-07-01},

journal = {Annals of surgical oncology},

volume = {28},

number = {7},

pages = {3567},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Fligor2021b,

title = {Time to Surgery and Thyroid Cancer Survival in the United States.},

author = {Scott C Fligor and Betzamel Lopez and Nishant Uppal and Carrie C. Lubitz and Benjamin C James},

url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33768394/},

doi = {10.1245/s10434-021-09797-z},

issn = {1534-4681},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-07-01},

journal = {Annals of surgical oncology},

volume = {28},

number = {7},

pages = {3556-3565},

abstract = {Longer time to surgery worsens survival in multiple malignancies, including lung, colorectal, and breast cancers, but limited data exist for well-differentiated thyroid cancer. We sought to investigate the impact of time to surgery on overall survival in patients with papillary thyroid cancer. In a retrospective cohort study of the National Cancer Database, we used Cox proportional hazard models to investigate overall survival as a function of time between diagnosis and surgery for adults with papillary thyroid cancer, adjusting for demographic, patient, and cancer-related variables. Time to surgery was investigated both as a continuous variable and as intervals of 0-90 days, 90-180 days, and > 180 days. Subgroup analyses were conducted by T stage. Overall, 103,812 adults with papillary thyroid cancer were included from 2004 to 2016. Median follow-up was 55.2 months (interquartile range 28.4-89.5). Increasing time to surgery was associated with increased mortality: delaying by 91-180 days increased the risk by 30% (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.30, 95% CI 1.19-1.43) and delaying by over 180 days increased the risk by 94% (aHR 1.94, 95% CI 1.68-2.24). Five-year overall survival was 95.7% for 0-90 days, 93.0% for 91-180 days, and 87.9% for over 180 days. On subgroup analysis, increasing delay was associated with worse overall survival for T1, T2, and T3 tumors, but not T4 tumors. Increasing time to surgery in papillary thyroid cancer is associated with reduced overall survival. Further research is necessary to assess the impact of surgical delay on disease-specific survival.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}